Wofford Terriers at No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
6:00 PM ET, Food City Center, Knoxville
Tennessee is a 26.5-point favorite at most books (a few have crept to 27.5), and the total sits at 154.5. My play is Wofford +26.5.
“Last year’s team at this time wasn’t very good either.” That’s Rick Barnes, a week before the opener, talking about the group that went on to win 25 games and reach a third straight Elite Eight. He meant it as encouragement. I read it as a warning label on a 26-point spread.
Thirteen new guys and no identity yet
This is not last year’s Tennessee with a few new pieces bolted on. Barnes has 13 new players, and per the coach, DeWayne Brown is essentially the only returner with real experience. Troy Henderson missed most of the summer. Terrence Hill Jr. sat out the Davidson scrimmage and was only starting to work back on the court late last week.
Barnes has been unusually blunt about it. “We don’t have an identity yet,” he said. His to-do list was guarding the ball, closing out on shooters, and rebounding. For a program that posted a +12.6 rebounding margin last season, the third-best mark in 30 years per Stats Perform, that’s a long list of fundamentals to still be chasing in November.
The talent is real. Juke Harris is a preseason All-American pick by Blue Ribbon, Tyler Lundblade led the country at 93.4% from the line at Belmont, and the nine transfers combined for 14.3 points a game last year. Bart Torvik’s preseason ratings have the Vols 17th nationally. The problem isn’t whether Tennessee wins. It’s whether a team learning each other’s names hangs 27 on anyone in game one.
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Wofford is no tomato can
The Terriers went 19-13 last year and were picked third in the SoCon preseason poll. Sophomore guard Chace Watley (9.7 points a game) and Black Hills State transfer Cam Lowe both made the preseason all-league team. Torvik has Wofford 273rd, not great, but nowhere near the bottom of Division I.
Here’s the math that matters. Run Torvik’s preseason efficiency and tempo numbers through a simple possession model and Tennessee wins by about 24, in a game played at a moderate pace (both teams rate around 69-71 possessions). That’s a couple of points short of the number, before you even account for a brand-new rotation and the bench minutes that pile up in the second half of a blowout. Opening-night blowouts tend to end with the deep bench on the floor.
And this matchup has a recent tell. These teams met in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, a 77-62 Tennessee win behind 29 from Chaz Lanier. That was a polished March team. It won by 15.
The case against me
Tennessee is 33-1 in its last 34 home openers, and the average home-opener crowd there runs close to 17,000. If Harris and Lundblade get hot from deep early, this snowballs fast; UT is the only team with four transfers who each hit 50-plus threes last season. Wofford also lost its top three scorers from a year ago, so its own chemistry is a question mark.
Still, a margin like 27 needs everything clicking for 40 minutes, and the head coach is telling anyone who’ll listen that it isn’t clicking yet.
Projected score: Tennessee 84, Wofford 62.
The Pick: Wofford +26.5
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