Sam Houston Bearkats at No. 20 Alabama Crimson Tide
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa
Alabama is laying 26.5 points at most books, with the total set at 171.5. My play is Sam Houston +26.5.
I think this is the most overpriced favorite on Tuesday’s SEC menu. The market is pricing the Alabama of last March. The Alabama that actually takes the floor tonight is missing its best returning guard, still waiting on a top-60 freshman, and has a coach openly griping about rebounding.
Alabama is playing short a lead guard
Aden Holloway averaged 16.8 points and hit a team-best 43.8% from three last season. He sits tonight, finishing a five-game suspension that also covered the exhibitions; his return is slated for Nov. 9 against Oakland. Freshman guard Anderson Diaz, who has an elbow injury, hasn’t played in a game yet, and Nate Oats said Monday, “I would doubt that Anderson is ready to go yet.”
That leaves Amari Allen, a 6-6 forward who averaged 11.4 points and 6.9 rebounds as a freshman, as the primary ball handler. Allen is a preseason SEC All-American and a terrific player. Running point is a new job for him, and the Tide also lost Labaron Philon, Latrell Wrightsell and Aiden Sherrell off last year’s Sweet 16 team.
“Rebounding still isn’t fixed”
That’s Oats after an 87-85 exhibition win over Auburn, and he added the kicker: everybody in his lineups is 6-5 or taller. Transfers Drew Fielder and Brandon Garrison were brought in to fix it. Until they do, a team that can’t finish defensive possessions gives a gritty mid-major second and third shots, and second shots are how a 26-point dog stays inside the number.
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The Bearkats are a real team
Sam Houston went 22-12, finished second in Conference USA, and played in the NIT. Bart Torvik’s preseason ratings have the Bearkats 157th, comfortably the best of the buy-game visitors in this batch of previews. Point guard Justin Begg (9.5 points a game before an ankle injury cut his season short) and shooter Jacobe Coleman (45 threes as a freshman) both made the preseason All-CUSA team. “We are more connected than any team I’ve been on,” Begg said. “We really share the ball.”
Line up Torvik’s preseason ratings for both teams, adjust for pace, and Alabama wins by roughly 19. Even if you shade that toward the Tide for the Coleman crowd, you’re nowhere near 26.5. Those ratings also don’t fully account for Holloway’s absence.
What could go wrong
Alabama plays fast, the fastest of the hosts we’re previewing tonight in Torvik’s tempo projections at over 76 possessions a game. More possessions mean more chances for talent to compound. Freshman Qayden Samuels averaged 16.3 points in the exhibitions, and NC State transfer Cole Cloer, who hit 8 of 18 from three in his two exhibition games, is probable. If those two catch fire, 30-point margins happen fast in Tuscaloosa. Sam Houston also has to replace five double-digit scorers.
I’ll take that risk with 26.5 points in my pocket against a short-handed favorite.
Projected score: Alabama 92, Sam Houston 72.
The Pick: Sam Houston +26.5
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