Manhattan Jaspers at No. 23 Kentucky Wildcats
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Rupp Arena, Lexington
Kentucky is a 32.5-point favorite (33.5 in a few spots) with the total at 158.5. My play is Over 158.5, and I’ll be honest up front: this is a lean, not a hammer.
How do you handicap a 32-point spread when the projection systems can’t agree? KenPom sees Kentucky 94, Manhattan 65, a 29-point game. Bart Torvik says 98-62, a 36-point rout. The market is sitting right in the middle. I’m not wading into that fight. I’d rather bet on what both models agree on: a lot of points.
Pope wants threes, and lots of them. Mark Pope said it plainly last week: “We’ll never turn down an open shot. That’s part of what you have to do to get to the 35 3s we’d love to chase.” That’s the attempt target, and he brought in the perfect trigger man. Milan Momcilovic led the nation last season at Iowa State in made threes (136) and three-point percentage (48.7%). In three exhibitions he averaged 16.7 points, and Pope’s main complaint was that he isn’t shooting enough.
The Cats also showed they can score in bunches against real teams. They beat Texas Tech 76-65 and UCF 90-76 in overtime, outscoring the Knights 19-5 in the extra period. Malachi Moreno, back after an All-Freshman season, put up 16 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists against UCF in nearly 37 minutes. That’s a center who now has the motor to keep the pace up.
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Manhattan’s defense is the soft spot in this whole building. Torvik’s preseason ratings put the Jaspers 358th in adjusted defense, which in plain terms means almost nobody in Division I is expected to give up easier buckets. They went 12-20 last year, 3-12 on the road, and only six players are back from that roster. A new group that hasn’t played together walking into Rupp is a recipe for open looks and run-outs.
Manhattan also isn’t a team that wants to crawl. Both these teams rate around 71-72 possessions a game in Torvik’s tempo numbers, and the Jaspers have a shooter in Colgate transfer Ben Tweedy, a preseason all-conference pick who hit 38.5% from deep last season. Garbage time cuts both ways for a total: Kentucky’s reserves keep firing, and Manhattan gets clean looks against them.
Why I could be wrong. The total is already stretched; the market’s 158.5 is right on top of KenPom (159) and Torvik (160). Kam Williams is out with his Jones fracture, so the Kentucky rotation is a man short. Big early leads can also turn into sloppy second halves full of fouls, free throws and clock. And if Momcilovic has one of those cold nights every shooter has, the threes Pope wants go up but don’t drop.
That’s why this one carries a “lean” tag. If you want to get cute with the spread, the projection split tells you there’s no clean edge either way.
Projected score: Kentucky 98, Manhattan 66.
The Pick: Over 158.5
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