East Carolina at Memphis
Thursday, October 22, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Memphis is a 10.5-point favorite (10 at several books) over East Carolina, and the total sits at 54.5. My play is Under 54.5.
Three points. That’s what East Carolina scored on its last 10 possessions at UAB last Thursday, a game it led 17-9 with under two minutes left and somehow lost 30-17 in overtime. The market’s answer to that is to push this total up two full points, from 52.5 at the consensus open to 54.5. I’ll happily take the other side of that.
The Pirates’ offense is a car with no fourth gear
East Carolina is a strange team to watch. The defense is nasty: it came into the UAB game leading the country in tackles for loss and then piled up 10 more, giving it 61 on the season. The offense, meanwhile, is stuck in the mud. The Pirates average 4.5 yards per play, which ranks No. 128 in FBS, and they barely move the chains on third down. The passing game is worse: 5.5 yards per throw is one of the lowest marks in the country. Game on Paper, which grades every snap on how much it actually helps a team score and adjusts for the opponent, ranks ECU’s offense No. 126 in FBS.
Head coach Blake Harrell didn’t sugarcoat it: “We’re not getting open down the field, or not protecting long enough, or not letting the ball go down the field.” Emory Williams has made three straight starts at quarterback, but Harrell called the job “always up for evaluation,” with Mitch Griffis and Trey Burke waiting.
What ECU can do is hand the ball to TJ Engleman Jr., who has three straight 100-yard games. Memphis’s run defense is soft (4.8 yards per carry allowed, No. 101), so expect a steady diet of Engleman. That’s fine with me. Every 12-play Engleman march eats clock, and those marches end right where this Memphis defense does its best work: it ranks No. 1 in red-zone scoring defense (60%) and No. 5 on third down (27.9%).
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Memphis will move the ball. Finishing is another story.
Make no mistake, Charles Huff’s first Memphis team can play. The Tigers average 7.1 yards per play (No. 4) and 10.6 yards per pass (No. 2). Marcus Stokes ranks among the national leaders in passing yards and touchdowns, Jaylin Carter has 780 rushing yards, and Stonka Burnside just went for 151 yards at Tulane. Harrell called it “probably the most explosive offense we’ve seen outside of Week One,” and Week One was Alabama.
But look at what happened in New Orleans. Memphis outgained Tulane 488-325 and scored 17. Six turnovers did most of the damage, but the Tigers also got into the red zone on all five second-half drives and came away with points once, including a stuffed fourth-and-goal from the 2. That wasn’t a one-week fluke, either. Memphis sits near the bottom of FBS at turning red-zone trips into points, and its kicker is at 70% on field goals. Stokes was also sacked five times in the first half, which is not what you want to bring into a week against a front that lives in the backfield.
A fun bit of history: the last time Memphis turned it over six times in a game was 2006, against East Carolina. After the Tulane loss, Huff said you “can’t win little league games when you turn it over the way we did tonight.” I expect a cleaner, more patient Memphis offense, and that means more Carter and fewer shots into coverage.
The scoreboard history agrees
The under has cashed in five straight East Carolina games, and only one of ECU’s six games has cleared 54.5: the opener, when Alabama hung 48 on the Pirates. Its FBS games since then have landed at 51, 37, 40 and 47, and that 47 needed overtime and a pick-six to get there. Memphis’s last two games stayed under 55.5 as well, landing at 51 and 48.
The nightmare for Under bettors
The scariest version of this game is Memphis catching fire through the air. The Tigers put up 59 at Charlotte and 42 on Arkansas State, and a 38-point night from them would put the under in danger nearly on its own. Turnovers are the other landmine. Memphis gives the ball away more than most teams in the country, and short fields or a defensive score can wreck a total in a hurry. ECU’s defense has also allowed points on every red-zone trip it has faced this year, and Memphis has been leaky in second quarters, allowing more than 11 points per game in that stretch, so even this ECU offense can find a window.
Projected score
Memphis gets its offense back on schedule, ECU leans on Engleman and settles for field goals, and both defenses do enough in the scoring area to keep this in the 40s. I’ve got Memphis 31, East Carolina 16, a total of 47 and comfortably under the number. Grab 54.5 while it’s there. It’s good down to the 52.5 opener, but 54 is a slightly worse ticket.
The Pick: Under 54.5
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