Idaho State Bengals at Utah State Aggies
Saturday, September 5, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Maverik Stadium
Utah State opens Bronco Mendenhall’s second year Saturday evening against FCS opponent Idaho State. The Aggies are 11.5 to 13.5-point home favorites depending on the source, with a total that ranges from 61.5 to 64.5. The value here is on the Under.
Historical numbers between these two schools might tempt bettors toward the Over. The last time they played in 2023, Utah State won 78-28 at Maverik Stadium — 106 combined points. That result is misleading. That was Blake Anderson’s Utah State program, which was built around fast tempo and heavy passing. Mendenhall is a completely different coach. His teams throughout his career at Virginia and BYU were built around defense, ball control, and grinding out wins.
Utah State’s 2025 offensive output shows the shift. The Aggies averaged around 25-28 points per game last year on their way to a 6-7 finish. That’s a solid offense but nowhere near the 40+ PPG teams that hit high totals against overmatched FCS opponents.
Now consider the coaching staff turnover. Kevin McGiven was Utah State’s offensive coordinator in 2025 but left in the offseason to take the same job at Utah. That means the Aggies are running a new offensive system installed by a new coordinator in Week 1 against their first live opponent. New offensive systems in Week 1 openers produce sputtering drives, missed timing, and stalled possessions — not 45+ point outputs.
There’s also the schedule to consider. Utah State plays at Washington next week, a legitimate Big Ten opponent. Mendenhall isn’t going to leave his starters on the field for four quarters trying to run up the score against Idaho State when he has a real Power Four road test in seven days. If the Aggies build a 24-3 lead by halftime, expect the second half to feature backup rotations grinding out clock rather than pushing tempo.
Idaho State isn’t going to score much either. They’re an FCS program, and they’ll likely be limited to 10-14 points against Utah State’s front-seven talent advantage.
Realistic Utah State win scenarios: 34-10 (44 total), 38-14 (52 total), 42-10 (52 total), 45-14 (59 total). All comfortably Under 64.5. Even a 45-17 game only reaches 62 combined points, still Under.
For the Over to hit, we need Utah State to score 45+ and Idaho State to score 17+, which requires everything to go right for both offenses in Week 1. That’s a lot to ask when the home team is breaking in a new offensive coordinator and playing conservatively with next week’s game in mind.
I looked at the side too. Utah State -11.5 is defensible given the talent gap, but if Mendenhall pulls his starters early, the final margin can end up closer than expected against an FCS opponent that keeps trying to score against backup defenders. The total gives the cleaner read here.
The Pick: Idaho State/Utah State Under 64.5
