Indiana at Michigan
Saturday, October 24, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Indiana is a 7-point road favorite over Michigan with a total of 41.5. My play is Indiana -7.
Michigan’s answer to a broken offense is a true freshman who has thrown seven college passes against a real opponent. Good kid, great bloodlines, wrong week.
Indiana is mad, and that’s bad news for Ann Arbor. The Hoosiers lost to Ohio State 19-15, and they were one toe away from winning it. Nick Marsh hauled in what looked like the go-ahead touchdown with 1:02 left, but his first step was out of bounds. It was Indiana’s first regular-season loss since November 2024. Curt Cignetti’s summary: “Out of the frying pan and into the fire as we get ready for Michigan.” His teams don’t sulk. Indiana has won seven straight road games, the longest run of any Power 4 program.
Tommy Carr is a great story. He’s not a solution yet. Kyle Whittingham’s first Michigan team has been held together by its defense and let down by everything else. The Wolverines lost to Iowa on a last-second drive and to Minnesota a week later, then trailed Penn State 3-0 at halftime before Bryce Underwood got the hook. Carr, the grandson of Lloyd Carr, came in, went 5-of-7 for 47 yards, ran in the game-winner, and has reportedly earned the start. Underwood had thrown five picks in his last ten quarters, so the move makes sense.
But look at what Carr inherits. Michigan ranks outside the top 100 nationally in efficiency per play, per pass and success rate, and 115th at moving the ball downfield on a drive. That’s not a quarterback problem alone. That’s an offense that can’t stay ahead of the chains, and Indiana’s defense grades out as a top-six unit nationally once you adjust for schedule. The Hoosiers are top 10 in the country at stuffing the run, which forces Carr into obvious passing downs in his first start, against a defense that is going to send its pass rush. Whittingham isn’t saying much: “We’re not going to tip our hand to the opponent.” He doesn’t have a lot of cards to hide.
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Hoover doesn’t need the ground game to show up. Here’s the honest part. Indiana’s running game has gone missing, with 65 yards against Nebraska and 73 against Ohio State, and Michigan’s run defense is better than both (89.7 yards a game, 2.7 a carry). “We haven’t gotten any explosive plays the last two weeks in the run game,” Cignetti admitted. Fine. Josh Hoover has 18 touchdown passes and zero interceptions. He is the only quarterback in the country with 15-plus touchdowns and no picks, and he threw for 296 yards against Ohio State’s defense last week. By efficiency, Indiana’s passing game ranks 15th in the nation. Michigan’s secondary is good, but it hasn’t seen this kind of accuracy every week.
And then there’s the stat I keep coming back to: Indiana has won or tied the turnover battle in 31 straight games, the longest streak in major college football since at least 1995. Michigan is on the wrong side of the turnover ledger this year. In a game with a total in the low 40s, one extra possession is basically a touchdown on the spread.
The part that keeps me up at night. Indiana is 1-6 against the spread this season, and its last three games were decided by six, three and four points. This defense has bent in the red zone, ranking in the bottom half nationally once teams get inside the 20, and Michigan’s offense, whatever its flaws, has been sneaky good down there. A low total also means a backdoor field goal can ruin a 7-point ticket. If this goes to -7.5, I’m more lukewarm. At -8, I’m out.
Projected score: Indiana 24, Michigan 13. Hoover makes three or four throws that Michigan can’t answer, and Carr learns what a top defense looks like.
The Pick: Indiana -7
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