Iowa State at Arizona
Saturday, October 24, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Casino Del Sol Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Arizona is a 9.5-point favorite over Iowa State with a total of 50.5. My play is Arizona -9.5.
Iowa State has lost four wide receivers for the season. Not four snaps, not four games. Four players. That’s the whole story of this matchup in one sentence, and it’s why I’m happy to lay a near-double-digit number with the hottest quarterback in the Big 12 at home on Homecoming.
The Cyclones are trying to win a passing game with no one to throw to
Jimmy Rogers inherited a gutted roster when Matt Campbell bolted for Penn State and took a big chunk of the locker room with him. To his credit, the Cyclones are 3-3, and all three losses came to ranked teams. But the injury bug has been brutal. Dominic Overby, the guy who could actually stretch the field, went down with a knee injury at BYU and joined Evan Boyd, Jordyn Bailey and Carter Pabst on the season-ending list.
What’s left is a passing game that ranks dead last in the Big 12 at 178.2 yards per game. Jaylen Raynor threw for more than 8,500 yards at Arkansas State, but in Ames he’s completing about 57% of his throws, and even his coach isn’t sugarcoating it. “There is no question Jaylen needs to improve his accuracy and make plays and really be an X factor in the offense,” Rogers said this week. Raynor graded himself “not great, not terrible.”
Here’s where it bites. Iowa State converts under 30% of its third downs, and the Cyclones face some of the longest third downs in the country, averaging more than eight yards to go. Arizona’s defense is one of the best in FBS at getting off the field on third and fourth down, allowing a success rate under 33% in those spots. Third-and-8 against that unit is a punt waiting to happen.
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Noah Fifita doesn’t need his whole receiving room, and that’s scary
Arizona has its own injury list. Tre Spivey is done for the year, and Giovanni Richardson and tight end Cole Rusk are still questionable. Didn’t matter in Morgantown. Missing three starting receivers, Fifita carved up West Virginia for 341 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-31 rout, with Isaiah Mizell going for 183 yards and two scores.
Fifita is completing about 73% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and just four picks. Arizona’s passing game is a top-15 unit nationally by both success rate and expected points per throw, which in plain English means the Wildcats move the chains through the air on almost every drive. They also convert 55% of their third downs. Iowa State’s pass defense is respectable, but it doesn’t generate much pressure, and a quarterback this accurate will pick apart a soft rush all night.
The bye week helps too. Arizona got two weeks to get healthy, and any of Richardson, Rusk or Chris Hunter returning is a bonus on top of an offense that’s already humming.
Aiden Flora is the one thing standing between Arizona and a comfortable night
Brent Brennan called Flora “a throwback dude,” and he’s right. The Iowa State back has 680 yards on just 90 carries and scored five total touchdowns against West Virginia. He’s the reason the Cyclones are averaging close to 30 points a game.
But a running back can only shorten a game so much when the offense can’t punish you for loading the box. Arizona can sell out on Flora, dare Raynor to beat them over the top with backups at receiver, and live with the result. The efficiency numbers tell the same story: SP+ has Arizona 15th in the country and Iowa State 68th, a gap well beyond what this spread is asking.
There’s some edge in the building, too. Iowa State hammered Arizona 39-14 in Ames last season, and Brennan spent his week begging fans to “sell out The Sol” for Homecoming and the 100th anniversary of Bear Down. A win also locks up bowl eligibility for the Wildcats.
How Iowa State crashes the Homecoming party
Arizona is just 2-4 against the spread, and the Wildcats have a habit of letting opponents hang around. Iowa State’s three losses came by 3, 14 and 14 points, so the Cyclones don’t get blown out often. If Flora breaks two long runs and Iowa State wins the field position battle, this could sit at 24-17 deep into the fourth quarter. The return of defensive end Caden Crawford would also give Iowa State’s pass rush a real jolt. I’d play this up to -10.5, but not past it.
I’ve got this one finishing Arizona 31, Iowa State 17 as my projected score. Fifita throws for three, Flora gets his yards, and Iowa State runs out of answers on third down.
The Pick: Arizona -9.5
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