Iowa State Cyclones at Utah Utes
Saturday, September 26, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Rice-Eccles Stadium
Utah is a 9.5-point home favorite over Iowa State with a total of 49.5. My play is the Cyclones getting the points.
The most recent head-to-head meeting at this exact stadium is the entry point here. Iowa State went into Rice-Eccles Stadium in November 2024 and won 31-28. That was a 3-point Cyclone victory at Utah’s home venue. Iowa State has proven they can go to Salt Lake City, handle the crowd, and win outright against the Utes. Getting nearly 10 points now in the same environment reflects a spread that overprices Utah’s home-field advantage.
Iowa State has real offensive weapons even after losing 20+ players to Penn State when Matt Campbell left. Jimmy Rogers’s first-year coaching staff has been putting together competitive offensive performances. They aren’t a top-15 team by any measure, but they’re not a team that gets blown out by two touchdowns either. Against Utah’s defense, they should be able to hit 21-24 points through balanced play-calling.
Utah’s home dominance has been real. The Utes went 66-14 against Idaho in Week 1 and 43-10 against Arkansas in Week 2 — those are legitimate dominant showings. But Idaho is an FCS opponent and Arkansas was on the road playing without their starting QB for stretches. Neither of those results translate directly to a Big 12 conference opener against a team that’s specifically beaten Utah on their home field two years ago.
Morgan Scalley is in his first year as head coach after Kyle Whittingham left for Michigan. First-year head coaches don’t consistently blow out established programs, and while Utah’s talent is legitimate, the coaching continuity edge Iowa State typically had against Utah under Whittingham has now shifted to their side. Scalley is still developing his in-game decision-making.
Devon Dampier and Utah’s offense are legitimate. He completed 13-of-18 for 176 yards and three touchdowns against Idaho. LaMarcus Bell rushed for 87 yards and a touchdown. Braden Pegan added 81 receiving yards. That’s a functioning offense, but it wasn’t tested against elite defensive competition. Against Iowa State’s more experienced defensive front, the numbers should regress somewhat.
The specific 9.5-point spread requires Utah to win by 10+. Given Iowa State’s proven ability to compete at Rice-Eccles, first-year coaching setups on both sides, and the type of conference matchup this typically becomes, that’s asking a lot. Realistic outcomes: Utah 27, Iowa State 21 (6-point margin, Cyclones cover +9.5); Utah 24, Iowa State 20 (4-point margin, covers by 5.5); Utah 31, Iowa State 24 (7-point margin, covers by 2.5); or Utah 34, Iowa State 17 (17-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Iowa State.
The Pick: Iowa State Cyclones +9.5
