Missouri Tigers vs. Tennessee Volunteers Week 11 Recommended Bet
Missouri Tigers (4-5 SU, ATS 5-3) vs Tennessee Volunteers (8-1 SU, ATS 4-2)
Date: Saturday, November 12th
Location: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Point Spread: Tigers +21/Volunteers -21 (Make the Tigers +41 or the Vols -1 by entering them into a 20 point college football teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)
Money Line: Tigers +935/Volunteers -1900
When playing against SEC opponents, the Tigers have posted a record of just 2-4. Their overall record currently sits at 4-5. This season, the Tigers have been favored in 3 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-3. Their average over-under betting line is 45.72 leading to an over-under record of 1-7.
The Tigers head into the game coming off a 21-17 loss vs. Kentucky. With the defeat, Missouri also added an ATS loss to their resume. For the game, Missouri threw for 143 yards but did not come up with a passing touchdown. Their overall completion percentage came in at 69.2%. The team ended the game with two rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 89 yards on the ground.
Heading into the matchup, Brady Cook has an overall passer rating of 83.32 on a total of 1795 yards. Thus far, he has thrown for six touchdowns and seven interceptions. Wide receiver Dominic Lovett, has come up with the most production for the team, with a total of 659 receiving yards. The top option in the run game for the team is Cody Schrader, who has carried the ball 111 times for a total of 508 yards.
This year, Volunteers have an overall record of 8-1. In addition, they have also played well in the SEC, going 4-1. This season, the Volunteers have been favored in 4 games while posting an ATS mark of 4-2. Their average over-under betting line is 42.56, leading to an over-under record of 2-4.
Tennessee is coming off a 14-point loss to Georgia by a score of 27-13. The Volunteers entered the game as 9.5-point home underdogs, making this an ATS loss. For the game, Tennessee threw for 195 yards but did not come up with a passing touchdown. Their overall completion percentage came in at 69.7%. On the ground, the team ended with one rushing touchdown while averaging 2.2 yards per carry for a total of 94 yards.
So far, quarterback Hendon Hooker has a passer rating of 127.63 while completing 179 of his 252 attempts. So far, the team’s most productive wide receiver is Jalin Hyatt, who has caught 51 passes for a total of 970 yards. In the run game, Jaylen Wright has accumulated 547 on 113 attempts to lead the team.
Through their last ten matchups, Missouri has gone 4-6 straight up, and 6-4 vs the spread. The team’s average scoring differential was 1.3, as they averaged 23.0 points per game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 21.7. Their last ten over-under record is 1-9-0.
In their last five games away from home, the Tigers have a straight-up record of 1-4-0 while going 4-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 17.6 points per game in this stretch.
Against the spread, Tennessee has gone 7-3-0 in their last ten games. Over this same period, their straight-up record is 8-2-0. Their last 10 over-under record comes in at 6-4. Tennessee has a positive scoring differential in these games, averaging 45.3 points per game and allowing
Across their last five home contests, Tennessee has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1-0. Their overall mark in these games was 5-0 while averaging 52.4 points per game.
KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS
Heading into this week’s matchup, the Tigers will look to improve their offensive output, as they are ranked just 101st in the NCAA in points scored and are matched up against Tennessee defense that is allowing an average of 21.67 points per game
This season, the Missouri offense has struggled in the run game, averaging just 146.78 yards per game on the ground. In terms of attempts, they rank 49th in the NCAA at 38.33 per contest.
This week, the Tigers will be facing a Tennessee defense that is ranked 12th in rush yard allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 96.0 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.
So far, the Volunteers are averaging 45.33 points per game on offense, which is good for 2nd most in college football. This week, they are facing off against a Missouri defense that is allowing an average of 21.44 points per game.
Although the Volunteers have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season, they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs a Missouri defense allowing teams to complete passes at a rate of 62.96%.
For the season, Tennessee is averaging 43.22 rush attempts per game, good for 37th in the country. In terms of production, they are 17th in yards per game at 187.89. This week, the Volunteers will be facing a Missouri defense that is 26th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they have averaged 136.0 yards per game when facing top 25 rush defenses.
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