NC State at Stanford
Friday, October 23, 2026
10:30 PM ET, Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
NC State is a 7-point road favorite with the total at 55.5. My play is NC State -7.
Dave Doeren has turned his football team into night owls. NC State spent fall break practicing at midnight, Sunday through Tuesday. The Wolfpack fly out Wednesday, two days early, and will practice Wednesday night at kickoff time. It’s the same routine they used before a 24-23 win at Cal in 2024. Doeren’s goal, in his words: “to be ready for that 1:30 a.m. fourth quarter.”
He needs this one. USA Today put Doeren fourth on its hot-seat list earlier this month, as reported by Pack Insider, and the last time anyone saw NC State, it led Wake Forest 14-10 at halftime and then lost 38-14 at home with 15 rushing yards. The week opened with sad news, too. Chuck Amato, who coached the Wolfpack from 2000 to 2006 and led the 2002 team to a school-record 11 wins, died Monday at 80, and Doeren began his press conference by honoring him. On the field, NC State gets 13 days of rest against a Stanford team on a six-day turnaround, and it gets the worst defense it has seen in a while.
Throw it at the Cardinal until they prove they can stop it
Stanford’s defense against FBS teams is ugly. It allows 41.5 points a game, 135th in the country, and opponents convert more than half their third downs. Get inside the 20 and points are close to automatic: opponents have scored on 96% of their red-zone trips. By EPA per play allowed, which tracks how much damage an offense does on each snap, Stanford ranks around 134th.
The cleanest path is through the air, and havoc.football rates NC State’s passing game against Stanford’s pass defense as the biggest edge in the game. Stanford allows 8.3 yards per pass and a 68.8% completion rate, and it almost never gets home, ranking 132nd in sack rate. That’s a dream setup for CJ Bailey, NC State’s career leader in completion percentage, who’s at 66.7% this year with nine touchdowns and four picks. Keenan Jackson has 400 receiving yards and five scores, and tight end Preston Douglas has caught 15 balls over the last three games.
That matters because the run game is a mess. NC State averages 3.3 yards a carry against FBS teams, and lead back Duke Scott was left off this week’s depth chart even though Doeren called him day-to-day.
On the other side, Stanford’s offense has been as bad as its defense. The Cardinal average 2.9 yards a carry against FBS teams (133rd) and 15.7 points a game. Their FBS scoring log reads 37, 6, 7, 34, 3 and 7. Micah Ford’s four-touchdown game last week was a lot of fun, and it came against FCS Elon.
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The 1:30 a.m. problem, and the rest of what keeps me up
This isn’t a big play, and the reason is simple. NC State falls apart after halftime. It has been outscored 115-77 in second halves and 59-30 in fourth quarters, and every opponent except Richmond has scored a touchdown on its first drive of the third quarter. Doeren called it a focus problem: “It’s a choice. Guys have to choose to focus better.” This game’s second half starts around midnight Eastern. The midnight practices were built for exactly that, and I’m still betting on a team that hasn’t shown it can finish.
Stanford is also a different animal at home. It’s 3-1 at Stanford Stadium this year, including a 34-27 win over Georgia Tech, and since 2024 it scores nearly twice as many points at home as on the road. Davis Warren threw for 279 yards without an interception last week, and NC State’s pass defense gives up 8.9 yards per attempt (129th), so a late backdoor touchdown is a real threat.
NC State is 2-4 against the spread, 0-2 on the road, and since 2024, nine of its 12 losses to Power Four teams have come by double digits. The offensive line is held together with tape too: left guard Yousef Mugharbil and center Spike Sowells are out for the season, and right guard Kamen Smith is day-to-day. Stanford hasn’t put out a current injury list, so we don’t know its health. The ACC availability report should arrive Tuesday night or Wednesday. And seven is a key number, so a push is very much on the table.
Still, the price is the reason to bet it. The models aren’t shy: havoc.football’s projection is NC State by 9, and the 75.8% win probability ESPN’s FPI hands the Wolfpack also works out to more than a touchdown. Take -7 at -108, which DraftKings and BetMGM are dealing, and don’t lay -7.5. Stay away from the total. Bailey picks on the Stanford secondary, NC State survives another wobbly third quarter, and the Wolfpack’s bye week pays off late. Call it NC State 34, Stanford 23.
The Pick: NC State -7
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