Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns
Saturday, September 12, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Texas is a 1.5-point home favorite over Ohio State with a total of 49.5. My play is the Under.
The head-to-head history between these teams is where I start. Last year’s opening meeting between Ohio State and Texas in Columbus finished 14-7. Twenty-one total points. That total came in about 30 points under the number and served as a reminder that when these programs play each other, the elite defensive units on both sides shut down offenses that ran through everyone else. Ohio State held Texas to 203 total yards, 2.3 yards per carry, and 4-of-14 on third and fourth downs in that game. Those numbers don’t suggest a game that suddenly turns into a shootout because it’s a year later.
Now consider Week 1 for both teams. Ohio State beat Ball State 56-3. Texas beat Texas State 59-7. Big offensive numbers, but even bigger defensive performances — combined, Ohio State’s and Texas’s defenses allowed 10 points across two games. Both units are playing at elite levels heading into this game. When two Top-10 defensive fronts face each other with elite quarterbacks having to make plays under pressure, the game slows down. Drives stall. Field position becomes king. Scoring drops.
Arch Manning is a talented quarterback with high-end tools, but he hasn’t been through a full season as a starter yet. Facing Ohio State’s defense in Austin, in front of a hostile home crowd, is not the ideal spot for him to have his most efficient game. Julian Sayin has been solid for Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have historically played conservatively in these big-time matchups. Ryan Day trusts his defense to win games rather than putting the game entirely on his young quarterback.
The scheme match-ups also favor the Under. Ohio State ranked 12th nationally in completion percentage allowed last year. Texas has a solid but not overwhelming pass rush. Both teams’ defenses have the ability to limit big plays and force offenses into third-and-long situations. When neither team can consistently sustain drives, points don’t accumulate.
Betting trends over the last full season also point to the Under. Ohio State was 10-4 to the Under in 2025 (5th best in FBS). Texas was 7-6 to the Under. Both teams consistently produce games where the total lands under the number. In this matchup specifically, that Under tendency compounds.
Realistic scores in a marquee, defensively-oriented game like this: Texas 24, Ohio State 21 (45 total); Ohio State 24, Texas 20 (44 total); Texas 21, Ohio State 17 (38 total); or Texas 27, Ohio State 24 (51 total). Three of four scenarios stay under. For the Over to hit, one team needs to score 27+ AND the other needs to score 23+, which is possible but requires both offenses to be efficient against Top-10 defenses.
The market has installed Texas as a 1.5-point favorite, which reflects the home field advantage and Texas’s slightly higher season-long ceiling. But the fundamentals of this specific matchup point to a low-scoring game.
The Pick: Ohio State/Texas Under 49.5
