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Oklahoma vs. TCU Pick & Prediction

by | Oct 16, 2018 | cfb

Oklahoma Sooners (5-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 20th, 2018 – 12:00 PM ET
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ABC
By: Keith Franks, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com

Point Spread: Oklahoma -7.5 / Texas Christian +7.5
Over/Under Total: 61

Oklahoma and TCU know each other quite well. The two teams last met in the inaugural Big 12 Championship in Arlington, Texas in December of 2017 where the Sooners would hose the Frogs by a score of 41-17. In doing so, OU covered a seven-point line. Overall, Oklahoma has beaten TCU in the last four meetings between both sides and has successfully covered in the last three outings. However, things were a bit different for the Sooners in these respective meetings. After all, OU had the services of a Heisman Trophy winner and the 2018 NFL Draft’s first overall pick, Baker Mayfield under center. The last time that TCU defeated Oklahoma was when they won 37-33 in 2014 in Fort Worth prior to Mayfield coming to Norman.

Texas Christian Falls To Texas Tech

The Frogs of War come into this contest on the losing end of a rivalry battle with cross-state foe Texas Tech. In what was a defensive game, the Frogs came up on the losing end of the equation as a 7.5-point favorite in a 17-14 struggle that could be described best as TCU letting Texas Tech hang around and get the best of them. TCU was bested in the turnover department as they gave the ball away three times to Texas Tech’s sole turnover. It could have been a lot worse as the Frogs had a total of four fumbles. Fortunately for them they recovered three of them. The story coming into the contest was Texas Tech’s high-powered offense against TCU’s strong defense. The Frogs gave up 411 yards to the Red Raiders but managed to minimize the damage as they held them way below their average of 43.2 points per game. The problem is TCU’s offense could not take advantage of the Red Raider’s typically accommodating defense and produce enough points to get the win.

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Oklahoma Outgunned In Red River Showdown

The Sooners come in off a loss they never want to take as they fell to their arch-rival Texas in the annual Red River Showdown. Historically known as the Red River Shootout, the game was just as the former nickname entailed. The Sooners fell to the Longhorns by a score of 48-45 where over 1,000 yards of offense were produced in the contest. Though Oklahoma lost as a touchdown favorite and gave up its top-five ranking in the process, there is more to the story than meets the eye. The Sooners trailed by as much as 21 points at the beginning of the fourth quarter and they rallied back to tie the game with 2:38 remaining in regulation. The Longhorns won the affair on a field goal in the closing stages of regulation when it appeared that the Sooners simply ran out of gas from rallying back.

A Key Match-Up To Focus On: Oklahoma’s High-Powered Offense Against The Fierce Texas Christian Defense

Once again, the focus will be on how this contest plays out. The Frogs are known for their defensive acumen while the Sooners are known for their offensive exploits. The Sooners score 48 points per game (5th nationally) and they compile 524.7 yards per game of total offense (9th nationally). The Frogs of War allow just 182 passing yards per game (20th nationally) and a 15th ranked total defense (311.8 yards per game). TCU only gives up 20.2 points per game. The question remains on whose terms this contest plays out. If this affair evolves into a nip-and-tuck fist fight with offenses trading punches, Oklahoma should get the W. After all, TCU’s offense has already shown that despite the talent it has across the board in the battery of wide receivers Jalen Reagor and KaVontae Turpin, running back Darius Anderson, and quarterback Shawn Robinson that they only average a 71st ranked 28.7 points per game. In a basketball game on turf, Oklahoma will run through Fort Worth with a win. However, if the defense can attain similar results as it did against another talented offense in Texas Tech, an upset could be in the works here if TCU plays responsible.

Take Texas Christian +7.5

If the Horned Frogs had won against Texas Tech, this line would be a lot different. There is no way that we would see TCU as a touchdown-plus underdog on its own soil had they won against the Red Raiders. However, be that as it may the Frogs have gone now from a 7.5-point favorite to a 7.5-point underdog on its own turf in the span of nine days. The only word to describe that is value. However, a bias towards recent dominance by Oklahoma combined with the market forgiving a hard-fought loss in a rivalry game against a team now ranked in the top-ten has fueled takers to swarm to the Sooners. TCU is still looking for a win this season as a statement to show they are back to being the typically dangerous Horned Frogs we are accustomed to seeing on a yearly basis. They had their chance against Ohio State as they had them on the ropes but mirroring what happened against Texas Tech, they let the game get away from them. However, Coach Gary Patterson is as good a coach as there is in the FBS and if anyone can circle the wagons and get this team back on the right foot it is him. TCU will come out with an inspiring effort and play this one with a chip on their shoulder against an Oklahoma team that still maybe mourning the loss against their greatest enemy. Upset alert is on here, adding in a healthy amount of points makes this play that much sweeter.

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