Toledo Rockets at Michigan State Spartans
Friday, September 4, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Spartan Stadium
Michigan State opens the Pat Fitzgerald era Friday night as 10.5-point favorites over Toledo with a total of 49.5. The value here is on the total staying under.
Fitzgerald hasn’t coached a college football game since 2022. That’s three full seasons out of coaching before Michigan State hired him last December. Coming back after that kind of layoff and installing a completely new system at a new program is not the recipe for an offensive explosion in Week 1. His Northwestern teams were always built around physical, grind-it-out defense and conservative offense that leaned on the run game. That’s the identity he’s bringing to East Lansing. Slow-tempo football, ball control, and clock management — not a shootout.
On the other sideline, Mike Jacobs is also making his first game as an FBS head coach. He came over from Mercer, an FCS program, and brought 14 of his former players with him to Toledo. That’s the definition of a program in transition. Toledo could have as many as 21 new starters when they take the field Friday, which means execution issues, timing problems, and missed assignments are baked into any realistic expectation for how their offense will perform.
Look at Toledo’s quarterback situation. John Alan Richter is the returning starter, but he’s thrown for just 699 yards and 7 touchdowns TOTAL over his last two seasons. He’s not a proven playmaker — he’s a game-manager. Against a Michigan State defense being built in Fitzgerald’s tough, disciplined image, Richter isn’t going to be throwing for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’ll be handing off to CJ Miller and hoping to sustain drives with short passes.
Miller himself is an interesting piece. He rushed for 957 yards and 14 touchdowns at Mercer last year and gives Toledo a legitimate ground game. But running against a Big Ten defensive front, even one that’s still figuring itself out, is going to be tougher than what he faced in FCS play. He’ll get his yards, but not the 150+ he’d need for Toledo to score in the 20s.
Michigan State’s offense also has real questions. They scored just 21.9 points per game last year on their way to a 4-8 finish, and Fitzgerald has been focused on defense and toughness during camp rather than opening up the passing game. The Spartans want to establish a physical identity and win with defense first, not put up 30 points to win Week 1.
Season openers between two teams under new head coaches almost never produce big scoring numbers. Both playbooks are vanilla. Both teams are still figuring out their execution. And in this specific matchup, both coaches want to establish tough, physical brands rather than run up the score.
Michigan State also has Notre Dame coming up in Week 3. That’s a huge game, and Fitzgerald is going to be conservative with playcalling to preserve his roster and not show too much of the playbook on tape before facing a top-15 opponent.
If Michigan State wins 24-14, that’s 38 total — Under. If they win 27-17, that’s 44 — Under. If they win 31-20, that’s 51 — Over. Even the closer scores that would suggest a Toledo cover still land safely under 49.5.
I considered the side. Toledo +10.5 has legitimate value given how much uncertainty is on both sides, but preseason spreads that big for teams debuting new coaches can flip either way. The total gives me the cleaner read.
The Pick: Toledo/Michigan State Under 49.5
