Troy Trojans at Missouri Tigers
Saturday, September 19, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Memorial Stadium (Faurot Field)
Missouri is a 26.5-point home favorite over Troy with a total of 49.5. My play is the Trojans getting the points.
The Missouri offensive ceiling is worth examining first. The Tigers just beat Kansas 38-21 in their Week 2 road game. That’s a 17-point margin against a Big 12 opponent. Kansas is a decent program — not elite, but a legitimate Power Four team with real defensive talent. If Missouri could only produce a 17-point margin against Kansas on the road, translating that to a 27-point margin at home against a Sun Belt team is asking for the Tigers to play significantly better than they did against Kansas.
Troy isn’t a bad Group of Five team. They’re 2-0 with wins over Sam Houston (24-21) and Alabama State (34-17). Goose Crowder is a proven quarterback who was on the preseason All-Sun Belt second team, and he threw three touchdowns in the Week 1 win. That’s an offense that can put up 17-24 points against real defenses. Against Missouri’s defense, which held Kansas to 21 points, Troy should be able to hit 14-17 points at minimum.
Now consider what Eli Drinkwitz will do in this game. Missouri has Mississippi State on the road next weekend — that’s their first SEC road game, and it’s a game where they need to play their best football to establish themselves in the SEC standings. Drinkwitz isn’t going to leave Austin Simmons and the top skill players on the field into the fourth quarter of a game where the outcome is decided. He’ll pull them once Missouri has a comfortable lead (say, 24-10 or 28-14), and backups will grind out the clock the rest of the way. That coaching philosophy directly limits the margin from getting to 27+ points.
The 100 years of Memorial Stadium celebration might inspire a strong Missouri start, but that emotional bump typically fades by halftime once the game is out of hand. What matters more for spread coverage is what happens in the fourth quarter, and Drinkwitz’s late-game approach in blowouts consistently produces backdoor covers.
Chip Lindsey’s new offensive system is still being installed at Missouri. Simmons was extremely efficient in Week 1 (17-of-19 with 4 TDs) but that was against UAPB. Against Kansas, the numbers cooled off — the offense scored 38 but wasn’t as dominant on a per-play basis. Against a Sun Belt defense that has been solid enough to hold Alabama State to 17, Missouri’s offense will produce points but won’t necessarily explode.
Realistic outcomes: Missouri 38, Troy 14 (24-point margin, Troy covers +26.5); Missouri 34, Troy 13 (21-point margin, Troy covers); Missouri 42, Troy 17 (25-point margin, Troy covers by 1.5); or Missouri 45, Troy 17 (28-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Troy, and given the coaching factors and Missouri’s actual production against real opponents, that’s the more likely outcome distribution.
The Pick: Troy Trojans +26.5
