Braves vs. Nationals Runline Wager 9/28/22

by | Last updated Sep 28, 2022 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals
Date: Wednesday September 28th, 07:05 ET
Location: Nationals Park
TV: Bally Sports South
Money Line: Braves -210 / Nationals +170
Total Line: 8.5


Atlanta: Jake Odorizzi (4-3, 3.75)
Washington: Josiah Gray (7-10, 5.17)

Braves Projected Lineup

William Contreras C
Vaughn Grissom 2B
Travis d’Arnaud C
Michael Harris II CF
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Austin Riley 3B
Robbie Grossman LF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Jake Odorizzi P

Nationals Projected Lineup

Alex Call LF
Ildemaro Vargas 3B
Luis Garcia 2B
C.J. Abrams SS
Joey Meneses 1B
Riley Adams C
Luke Voit 1B
Nelson Cruz CF
Lane Thomas RF
Josiah Gray P


Atlanta Braves: 96-58-0 SU / OU 77-70-8 / Run Line W/L 80-75-0
Washington Nationals: 53-100-0 SU / OU 70-75-9 / Run Line W/L 68-86-0

The Washington Nationals host the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday September 28th at Nationals Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-210), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Atlanta Braves will look to pick up another big win after they defeated Washington by a score of 8-2. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited Washington to 2 runs on 6 hits. The Braves lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 10 hits, leading to 8 runs. Heading into their last game, Atlanta was the betting favorite at -220.0. Through 132 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 70.0%. With the over-under line set at 8.5 runs, the Braves and Washington combined to go over this total. Atlanta has had more than half of their games go over the over-under line (77-70-8).

The Braves come into this game with a 4-1 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +10. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.92 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 6.2. So far, Atlanta has won over half of their 49 series played, going 27-15-7.

Washington will look to move on from a 6 run loss to the Braves, falling by the score of 8-2. On their way to giving up 8 runs, the Nationals staff allowed 10 hits. At the plate, the Nationals only came through for 2 runs on 6 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Washington came into the game as the underdog, getting 180.0. So far, the team has gone into 131 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 34.0%. The Nationals and Braves went over the run total line set at 8.5 runs. So far, Washington has an over-under record of just 70-75-9.

In their last 5 contests, the Nationals have just 1 win, going 1-4. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -15 over their last 5 games. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 2.2 runs over their last 5 game. Washington has a below .500 series record of just 11-33-5.

Pitching Matchup

Atlanta will roll with Jake Odorizzi (4-3) as their starter. To date, Odorizzi has an ERA of 3.75 while lasting an average of 5.0 innings per appearance. So far, Odorizzi has a batting average allowed of 0.23. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Odorizzi, as he is allowing just 0.75 per 9 innings. Odorizzi has accumulated a strikeout percentage of 19.0% and a per game average of 3.83. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.55 walks per contest.

The Washington Nationals will send Josiah Gray to the mound with an overall record of 7-10. Gray gets the start with an ERA of 5.17. On average, he has lasted 5.27 innings per appearance. Gray’s opponent’s batting average currently sits at 0.244. Home runs have been an issue for Gray, as he is allowing an average of 2.34 per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Josiah Gray is averaging 5.63, on a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. Command has been a problem for Gray, as he is giving up 4.04 walks per outing.

Atlanta vs Washington History

Today’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals will be their 19th meeting of the season. Atlanta has the lead in the series at 14-4. The over-under record in this series sits at 10-8. The average run total in these games is 9.16 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.56 runs. Last season, Atlanta picked up the series win, 14 games to 5. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 9-10. Last year, the Braves and Nationals averaged 9.16 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.63 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Atlanta is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Washington
  • Atlanta is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Washington
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington’s last 11 games when playing at home against Atlanta
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington’s last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals Prediction

Heading into Wednesday’s NL East matchup between Atlanta and Washington, the Braves are a heavy favorite on the moneyline. Even though Jake Odorizzi got tagged in his last outing, I expect things to go differently for the right-hander as the Nationals have only scored 2 runs in their current series with Atlanta. I like the Braves on the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Braves Runline