Cardinals vs. Reds Best Bet 7/22/22

by | Last updated Jul 22, 2022 | mlb

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Friday, July 22nd, 06:40 ET

Location: Great American Ball Park

TV: Bally Sports Midwest

Money Line: Cardinals -156 / Reds +130

Total Line: 10
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St. Louis: Adam Wainwright (6-7, 3.0)
Cincinnati: Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.45)

Cardinals Projected Lineup

Nolan Gorman 2B
Corey Dickerson LF
Brendan Donovan 3B
Tyler O’Neill LF
Nolan Arenado 3B
Andrew Knizner C
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Tommy Edman SS
Dylan Carlson CF
Adam Wainwright P

Reds Projected Lineup

Kyle Farmer SS
Mike Moustakas 1B
Tyler Stephenson C
Tyler Naquin RF
Brandon Drury 1B
Nick Senzel CF
Tommy Pham LF
Joey Votto 1B
Jonathan India 2B
Graham Ashcraft P


St. Louis Cardinals: 50-44-0 SU / OU 44-46-4 / Run Line W/L 51-43-0
Cincinnati Reds: 34-57-0 SU / OU 50-40-1 / Run Line W/L 42-49-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday, July 22nd, at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Cincinnati as the favorite (OFF), with an OU line set at OFF.

Recent Form

In St. Louis’s last game vs the Reds, the Cardinals came away with a 11-3 win. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 3 runs on 4 hits. The Cardinals lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 12 hits, leading to 11 runs. In the matchup, St. Louis was favored at -175.0 on the moneyline. Through 52 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 67.0%. Together, the Cardinals and Reds combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.5 runs. On the season, St. Louis’s over-under record is 44-46-4.

The Cardinals come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +8. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 6.2 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.59. So far, St. Louis has won over half of their 29 series played, going 13-9-7.

Cincinnati is coming off an 8-run loss to the Cardinals. Dropping the game 11-3. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 12 hits, leading to 11 runs. With their 4 hits, the Reds could only plate 3 runners. Leading into Cincinnati’s loss they were the underdogs, getting 145.0 on the moneyline. In their 69 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 38.0%. The Reds and Cardinals went over the run total line set at 8.5 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 50-40-1.

The Reds come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -11 over their last 5 games. In their 5 most recent contests, the team is scoring at a rate of 4.6 runs per game, similar to their season long average of 4.29. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 8-16-6.

Pitching Matchup

St. Louis will roll with Adam Wainwright (6-7) as their starter. Through 18 appearances, Wainwright has an ERA of just 3.0 while averaging 6.17 innings per appearance. Across his previous starts, opposing teams have put together a batting average of 0.251. This season, Wainwright has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.89 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Adam Wainwright has a strong strikeout percentage of 20.0%, including a per-game average of 4.94. Command has been a problem for Wainwright, as he is giving up 2.51 walks per outing.

The Cincinnati Reds will send Graham Ashcraft to the mound with an overall record of 4-2. Ashcraft gets the start with an ERA of 4.45. On average, he has lasted 5.42 innings per appearance. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.277. So far, Ashcraft has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.83 home runs per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Ashcraft is averaging just 3.2 K’s per game. So far, he has struck out 13.0% of the batters he has faced. Ashcraft has done a good job at limiting walks, averaging just 1.98 per contest.

St. Louis vs Cincinnati History

For the season, the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds will be playing their 9th game of the season. So far, St. Louis is leading the season series, 6-2. Through 8 games, the series’ over-under record is 4-4, with the average run total sitting at 9.53 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.25 runs. Dating back to last season, Cincinnati picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 11-7, with the average run total being 9.53 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.11 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis’s last 5 games on the road
  • St. Louis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games
  • Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Heading into Friday’s NL Central matchup between St. Louis and Cincinnati, the Cardinals have the edge on the moneyline. Red starter Graham Ashcraft’s pitching numbers have been on a steady incline, as his ERA has gone from 1.14 in early June to his current figure of 4.45. Look for the Cardinals to come away with the win, as Adam Wainwright is putting together another outstanding season.

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