MLB Picks: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets 8/5/22

by | Aug 5, 2022 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

Date: Friday August 5th, 07:10 ET

Location: Citi Field

TV: Bally Sports Southeast

Money Line: Braves +113 / Mets -135 (GTBets - Use bonus code PREDICTEM and you’ll receive a 125% real cash bonus up to $500 in bonus cash!)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Atlanta: Ian Anderson (9-6, 4.99)
New York: Taijuan Walker (9-2, 2.79)

Braves Projected Lineup

William Contreras C
Orlando Arcia 2B
Eddie Rosario LF
Ronald Acuña Jr. CF
Marcell Ozuna LF
Austin Riley 3B
Michael Harris II CF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Ian Anderson P

Mets Projected Lineup

Mark Canha LF
Luis Guillorme SS
Daniel Vogelbach 1B
Starling Marte RF
Jeff McNeil 2B
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Taijuan Walker P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Atlanta Braves: 63-43-0 SU / OU 53-49-4 / Run Line W/L 54-52-0
New York Mets: 67-38-0 SU / OU 53-44-8 / Run Line W/L 57-48-0

The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves on Friday, August 5th, at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-135), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

In Atlanta’s last game, they fell to the Mets by a score of 6-4. Atlanta’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 9 hits, leading to 6 runs. The Braves ended the game with just 4 runs on 7 hits. Atlanta’s loss came as the underdog, getting 100.0 on the moneyline. With the over-under line set at 8.0 runs, the Braves and Mets combined to go over this total. Atlanta has had more than half of their games go over the over-under line (53-49-4).

In the Braves’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +13. Overall, Atlanta is averaging 4.75 runs per game. Over their last 5 contests, they have been producing at a similar rate, at 4.75. So far, Atlanta has won over half of their 34 series played, going 16-12-6.

New York is coming off a 2 run win over the Braves (6-4). In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 4 runs on 7 hits. In the victory, the Mets came up with 9 hits and 6 runs. In the game, New York was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -120.0. So far, the team has won 69.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Mets and Braves went over the run total line set at 8.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 53-44-8.

In their last 5 games, the Mets have put together a record of 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +12. Compared to their season average, the Mets come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 6.4 runs per game. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 25-6-3.

Pitching Matchup

The Atlanta Braves will send Ian Anderson to the mound with an overall record of 9-6. To date, Anderson has an ERA of 4.99 while lasting an average of 5.05 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.262. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Anderson, as he is allowing just 0.98 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Ian Anderson has a strong strikeout percentage of 20.0%, including a per-game average of 4.5. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Anderson is averaging 4.37 free passes per outing.

Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Mets, with an overall record of 9-2. Currently, Walker has a strong ERA of just 2.79 while pitching an average of 5.73 innings per outing. This season opponents are hitting 0.231 against Walker. So far, Walker has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.61 home runs per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Taijuan Walker has a strong K% of 19.0%, including a per game average of 4.44. Command has been a problem for Walker, as he is giving up 2.44 walks per outing.

Atlanta vs New York History

Today’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will be their 9th meeting of the season. Currently, New York is winning the season series 5-3. Through 8 games, the series’ over-under record is 5-3, with the average run total sitting at 7.68 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.25 runs. Last season, Atlanta picked up the series win, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 7-11, with the average run total being 7.68 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.47 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
  • NY Mets is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
  • NY Mets is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Prediction

Heading into Friday’s NL East matchup between Atlanta and New York, the Mets have the slight edge on the moneyline. But aside from a rough outing vs the Angles, Braves starter Ian Anderson has been excellent of late. Atlanta has won 4 of 5 the right-hander’s last 5 outings. Look for this trend to continue in a win for the Braves.

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