LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers
Friday, October 23, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Crypto.com Arena
The Lakers are 9.5-point favorites with a total of 228.5, and my play is the Clippers +9.5.
No LeBron. No Kawhi. For the first time in years, the Battle of L.A. belongs to a new cast, and the betting market has decided after one night that the gap between these teams is nearly double digits. I think that’s a big overreaction to one great Lakers performance.
Yes, Walker Kessler was ridiculous. The 7-foot-2 center went 12-for-12 in his Lakers debut, scored 26, and threw down 10 dunks, the most by a Laker since Shaquille O’Neal in 2003. Luka Doncic poured in 28 in three quarters, Austin Reaves added 23, and the Lakers shot 56.8% in a 127-105 beatdown of Golden State. It was the kind of game that makes the whole league pay attention. It also came against a Warriors team that was missing Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody and made just 8 of 36 threes. Not every opponent will hand the ball back that easily. Golden State’s 16 turnovers became 25 Lakers points.
The Clippers didn’t just beat Sacramento, they buried them. The Clippers never trailed in a 121-96 win, dropping 41 points in the first quarter. Darius Garland had 30 in 32 minutes, and he sounded like a guy who already has the offense figured out: “When they’re trying to help out, I try to swing it as quick as I can to our shooters.” The bench outscored the Kings’ reserves 53-34. Brook Lopez had 17 and 11 off the pine, and No. 5 pick Keaton Wagler gave them 15 points, five rebounds and five assists in his debut. This team was supposed to be lost after a brutal offseason. Instead it looked like the deepest roster in the building.
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Rui Hachimura is coming home with a chip on his shoulder. Hachimura spent three and a half seasons with the Lakers before leaving in free agency, and he’s not hiding how much this one means. “Playing in that arena is special to me,” he said. “I am excited for it.” Revenge narratives can be overrated, but a motivated former Laker who knows every one of their sets is a nice thing to have when you’re getting this many points.
The chaos around the Clippers might be fuel. This franchise has had a wild few months. The NBA found it guilty of salary-cap circumvention tied to Kawhi Leonard, who was traded to Toronto. Steve Ballmer is serving a one-year suspension, the team was fined $30 million, and it lost five straight draft picks from 2029 through 2033. A roster full of guys nobody believes in, playing in an arena full of purple and gold, is a recipe for a gritty, competitive game.
Slow it down and keep it close. The Clippers played at the third-slowest pace in the league last season, per Basketball Reference. Fewer possessions mean fewer chances for a favorite to stretch a lead, and that’s exactly what you want when you’re holding a big number. The Lakers have won eight of the last 12 meetings, but those games weren’t played with this cast.
The case against me. The Clippers are thin on top-end talent right now. Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram and Max Strus are all out, and Garland may have to carry a heavy load against a Lakers defense that suddenly has a rim protector. Kessler is playing with a finger splint but is available, and if he dominates the paint again, the Clippers’ bigs could be in foul trouble by halftime. Doncic can also turn any game into a 20-point blowout by himself. If he’s hitting step-back threes early, the Clippers won’t have the firepower to keep up.
I just don’t trust one opening night enough to lay 9.5 in a rivalry game. The Clippers are deep, motivated, and already better connected than people think. Take the points and the cushion, and grab +9.5 while it’s still there. I’d still play it at +8.5.
Projected score: Lakers 116, Clippers 108
The Pick: Clippers +9.5 (-110)
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