Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
Friday, October 23, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Kaseya Center
The Pistons are 1.5-point favorites over the Heat with the total at 236.5. My play is the Pistons -1.5 (-105).
Erik Spoelstra handed me this pick himself. After Minnesota ran his team off its own floor 131-106 on Wednesday, the Heat coach broke down exactly how it happened. “They dominated the turnovers, dominated the offensive glass, and dominated the three-point line,” Spoelstra told the Miami Herald.
Now read that list again and think about who’s coming to town Friday. Detroit forced turnovers at the highest rate in the NBA last season and ranked third in offensive rebounding percentage. That’s two of Spoelstra’s three problem areas, and they happen to be the two things the Pistons do better than almost anybody.
The Giannis era is off to a clunky start
Giannis Antetokounmpo was terrific on his own in his Heat debut, scoring 35 on 13-of-19 shooting before fouling out. That’s the problem, though: he did it mostly alone. He finished with one assist, Miami turned it over 19 times, and Minnesota grabbed 17 offensive boards to the Heat’s four. It was the second-worst season-opening loss in franchise history.
“Our effort has got to be way better. It starts with me,” Antetokounmpo said afterward.
I believe him, and Miami will be better at home on Friday. But a new star needs time to fit, and teams that are still working out who has the ball don’t usually clean up their turnover problem against the league’s best ball-hawking defense. As Spoelstra put it, “We didn’t look like us offensively.”
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Detroit, meanwhile, already passed its first test. Boston led 72-50 in Tuesday’s opener, and the Pistons came back to win 121-113. Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren each scored 22, Ausar Thompson grabbed 11 rebounds, and Javonte Green scored all 19 of his points after halftime. That’s a deep team that didn’t panic, and it gets extra rest here, last playing on Tuesday while Miami turns around and plays in Charlotte on Saturday.
There’s a fun subplot, too. Duncan Robinson spent his first seven seasons in Miami before the 2025 sign-and-trade to Detroit, and he just torched Boston for 21 points on 5-of-9 shooting from deep. You know he circled this one.
What could go wrong
Miami had the market’s respect before Wednesday. This game opened with the Heat as 2.5-point favorites, and one blowout flipped it to Detroit, so I’m laying a number that already moved my way. The Heat also won two of three meetings last season, and you can bet a Spoelstra team comes out angry at home after an embarrassment like that. The Pistons have their own scar tissue, too: their season ended with a 31-point loss to Cleveland in Game 7 of the second round. If Giannis gets downhill and his teammates start hitting shots, Miami can win this outright.
I’ll still lay it at -1.5 and would go up to -3. Pistons 117, Heat 112.
The Pick: Pistons -1.5 (-105)
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