Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors
Friday, October 23, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Chase Center
The Warriors are 3-point favorites with a total of 234.5, and my play is the Grizzlies +3.
The market already blinked. Golden State opened at -4.5 and has been sliding toward -2.5 ever since, and I don’t think the books are done moving. The Warriors will get the banners, the free shirts and a loud home-opener crowd. What they won’t get is Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody, and that matters a lot more after 48 minutes than the pregame light show.
Ty Jerome just announced himself, and Memphis has a new identity
Nobody had the Grizzlies circled for anything this year. They went 25-57 last season, traded Jaren Jackson Jr. at the deadline and sent Ja Morant to Portland this summer. Then Ty Jerome went out Wednesday and dropped a career-high 45 on Utah in a 123-103 rout, hitting 17 of 25 shots. That’s the most points ever by a Grizzly in a season opener, and it broke Morant’s old mark of 44.
Jerome is the old man of this group. The Warriors’ own game notes point out that the other four Memphis starters are all under 25. They play fast, they crash the glass and they don’t seem to care who they’re supposed to lose to. Memphis pulled down 55 rebounds against the Jazz, 15 of them on the offensive end, and Zach Edey’s massive frame is about to meet a Golden State frontcourt that is running on fumes.
The Warriors’ size problem is real
Porzingis is away from the team, Charles Bassey is questionable with a knee issue, and the Warriors leaned on rookie Graham Ike for backup center minutes in the opener. The Lakers walked all over them inside. Walker Kessler went 12-for-12, Los Angeles won the paint 66-56, and Golden State lost the rebounding battle 43-36 on its way to trailing by as many as 35.
Stephen Curry was brilliant early. He scored 16 points in the first quarter and finished with 23 in 21 minutes, and he and Draymond Green still read each other’s minds in their 15th season together. As a team, though, Golden State shot a miserable 8-for-36 from three. Brandin Podziemski (back) is questionable again after missing the opener, so the guard rotation could be thin too.
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The rookie rematch nobody’s talking about
There’s some extra juice here. This is a rematch of the Summer League title game, when No. 11 pick Yaxel Lendeborg led the Warriors past No. 3 pick Cameron Boozer. Lendeborg had a feisty debut against Luka Doncic, technical foul and all. Boozer had a rough one, going 2-for-15 but still giving Memphis 11 rebounds and five assists. If you’re counting on a 7-point night from Boozer again, I’d take the other side of that bet. He’ll find the rim against this front line.
There’s also a scheduling wrinkle. Friday is the front end of Golden State’s first back-to-back, with a trip to Phoenix on Saturday. Curry is 38 and played only 21 minutes in the opener, so don’t be surprised if Steve Kerr keeps an eye on the clock again with Phoenix waiting.
What could go wrong
Cedric Coward is listed as doubtful with a wrist sprain, and Isaiah Stewart is questionable with a sprained ankle. Losing Coward pulls a starting wing out of the rotation and thins out a young bench. Jerome won’t make 68% of his shots again, either. And Curry in a home opener can still be lethal. If he gets loose from deep in the first quarter like he did in L.A., this number could look short in a hurry.
Still, I’m getting a field goal with the deeper, bigger, hungrier team, and the market is already moving my way. I’ll take the points and wouldn’t be shocked if Memphis wins it outright.
Projected score: Grizzlies 117, Warriors 115
The Pick: Grizzlies +3 (-110)
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