Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings
Friday, October 23, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Golden 1 Center
The Trail Blazers are 8-point road favorites with a total of 232.5, and my play is the Under 232.5.
Portland’s season was 21 points old before Phoenix scored at all. The Suns didn’t get on the board until they made free throws with 5:54 left in the first quarter. By halftime it was 72-39, and the final was 124-83. That was the loudest opening statement in the league this week, and it was made by a defense as much as by Damian Lillard’s six threes.
Everybody saw the offense. Lillard, back in a Blazers uniform for his first regular-season game after a year rehabbing a torn Achilles, scored 25. Ja Morant had 14 points and eight assists in his Portland debut, and Deni Avdija played through a sore ankle to post 18 and 10. What got lost in the highlights is what Portland did on the other end. Phoenix shot 36% from the field, made just six threes, and was buried on the glass as the Blazers grabbed 56 rebounds. Rookie head coach Micah Nori was emotional after his first win. “Never in my wildest dreams did I think that we were gonna have the start that we did, and play as well as we did, and win by as many as we did,” he said.
Sacramento’s offense is in triage
The Kings are a mess right now, and not the fun, run-and-gun kind. Ben Simmons tore his Achilles in practice on Sunday. Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell are out, which leaves Domantas Sabonis without much size behind him. In Wednesday’s 121-96 loss to the Clippers, Sacramento never led, shot 42% from the floor, went 8-for-28 from three and missed 12 free throws. No. 7 pick Darius Acuff Jr. went 5-for-24 in his debut, and Keegan Murray didn’t score until the fourth quarter.
Doug Christie tried to rally the group before tipoff. “Now, we’re playing for Ben, all of us,” he said. The Kings will play hard in their home opener, but effort doesn’t fix spacing. They were 26th in offensive efficiency last season, according to Basketball Reference, and that was before this week’s injury pile-up. Zach LaVine (28 points Wednesday) and Sabonis (14 and 18 in his first game since February) can’t do it alone against long, switchy defenders like Toumani Camara and Jrue Holiday.
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Why I’m not laying the 8
The public loves Portland here, and you can see it in the number. The line opened at 6.5 and has climbed to 8 or 8.5, with nearly nine of every ten spread tickets on the Blazers. That’s a lot to lay on the road with a team that just changed coaches and is still figuring out how Lillard and Morant share the ball. The total is the cleaner bet. Portland’s defense smothered Phoenix, Sacramento’s offense looked broken, and 232.5 needs both teams to cooperate. I don’t see the Kings carrying their half of that load.
Then there’s the blowout factor. If Portland pulls away again, Nori will happily empty the bench like he did early in the fourth quarter Wednesday. Backups and slow, sloppy late-game possessions are a gift to Under bettors.
Why I could be wrong
Portland made 19 threes against Phoenix, and if that shooting comes along to Sacramento, the Blazers could hit 125 by themselves. Malik Monk is probable after missing the opener with a sore ankle, and he gives the Kings a guy who can score in bunches. Home openers can also get loose and fast, especially if Sacramento falls behind early and starts jacking up threes to get back in it.
I’ll still bet on the defense I saw and the offense Sacramento hasn’t shown me. Portland should win this, probably comfortably, but the scoreboard shouldn’t be all that crowded.
Projected score: Trail Blazers 117, Kings 106
The Pick: Under 232.5 (-110)
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