New York Knicks at Boston Celtics
Friday, October 23, 2026
7:00 PM ET, TD Garden
The Celtics are 2.5-point favorites over the Knicks with a total of 223.5, and my play is the Under 223.5 (-110).
Everybody’s going to spend Friday talking about who’s 0-1. I’m more interested in how these two teams actually like to play, because that part didn’t change over the summer.
Two banners, two bad nights
New York raised its first championship banner since 1973 on Tuesday, handed out the rings, and then got mugged by Philadelphia, 106-100. Jalen Brunson told the Garden crowd before tip, “The joy that this city had this summer, we would love to replicate that again.” Then the Finals MVP went 6 for 19, and the Knicks shot 37% as a team.
Boston’s opener was worse in a different way. The Celtics led Detroit by 22 early in the third quarter, then got buried by a 23-0 Detroit run and lost. Paul George was brilliant, setting a Celtics debut record with 38 points. Jayson Tatum, in his first full season back from a torn Achilles, went 6 for 23 and missed all seven of his threes. Joe Mazzulla wasn’t worried: “If he’s open, shoot it. I don’t care if he’s 0-for-10.”
There’s a fun side plot, too. Mitchell Robinson won a ring in New York last season and now starts at center for Boston. Expect a loud welcome-back moment, and expect him to bang bodies with Karl-Anthony Towns and Andre Drummond all night.
Nobody in this building wants to run
Here’s the heart of the bet. Boston played at the slowest pace in the NBA last season, about 95 possessions per 48 minutes. The Knicks were among the five slowest teams too. Fewer trips down the floor means fewer chances to score, and a 223.5 total asks for a lot of points from two teams that would rather grind.
The betting results back it up. Boston went Under in 64% of its games last season, one of the best Under records in the league. The Knicks stayed Under 54% of the time.
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The glass is where this game gets ugly
The Knicks lost on Tuesday but still pounded the boards, 53-45, with Drummond grabbing 14 rebounds in 24 minutes off the bench. Boston got beaten up inside by Detroit, losing the rebounding battle 49-39 and sending the Pistons to the line 32 times.
That combination sounds like points, but think about what it really looks like: a whistle-heavy, half-court slog with second shots and free throws instead of fast breaks. Both coaches have spent two days stewing over opening-night losses, so I expect two locked-in defenses and a lot of shot-clock basketball.
Injuries aren’t a factor. Boston’s only real absence is Devin Carter (illness), and New York lists only two-way players.
How this blows up on me
George is the problem. If he gets hot again, and Tatum’s shot comes back at the same time, Boston has two guys who can score in bunches. The Celtics also made 17 threes in Detroit, and a pair of hot shooting nights can blow past any total. Tatum’s legs are still a question mark, though, and Brunson rarely has two quiet nights in a row. A tight game also invites late fouling, which can tack on six or eight cheap points in the final minute.
Even so, the number is a touch too high for these two styles. I’d still play this down to 221, and I’d pass below that.
Projected score: Celtics 110, Knicks 107
The Pick: Under 223.5 (-110)
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