Denver Nuggets vs. Toronto Raptors Odds & Picks

by | Feb 12, 2022 | nba

Denver Nuggets (30-25 SU, 24-30-1 ATS) vs. Toronto Raptors (31-23 SU, 33-21-0 ATS)

When: Saturday, February 12th, 2022, 7:30 pm (ET)

Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON

TV: NBA League Pass

Point Spread: DEN +3.5/TOR -3.5 (Opened at 3.5 at MyBookie - Use bonus code PREDICT100 and they’ll give you a 100% real cash bonus up to $300!)

Total: 222.5 (Opened at 222.5)

Money Line: DEN +130/TOR -160

Power Rating: TOR -5

Probable Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets: PG Bones Hyland, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic

Toronto Raptors: PG Fred VanVleet, SG Gary Trent, SF OG Anunoby, PF Scottie Barnes, C Pascal Siakam

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets: G Monte Morris *Out* (Concussion), G Austin Rivers *Probable* (Hip), F Vlatko Cancar *Out* (Foot), F Michael Porter Jr. *Out* (Back), G Jamal Murray *Out* (Knee)

Toronto Raptors: G Fred VanVleet *Questionable* (Groin), F Thaddeus Young *Out* (Trade Pending)

Recent Form

The Denver Nuggets head into Toronto with a 30-25 record and sit 6th in the Western Conference. After a stint in January with the Nuggets playing great offense to add to their consistent defense, the team has had a slow start to the month as they can’t have both sides show up on the same night. To start off February, the Nuggets dropped 115 points, but the defense was unable to stop Minnesota as they gave up 130 points. In a recent game, though it was a win, the Nuggets defense allowed the Knicks to score 115 points, who are one of the worst offenses this season. In their loss last night to the Celtics, despite allowing under 40% from the floor, Denver had 21 team turnovers in their 108-102 loss. This concerns me as their turnover issues as of late could be exposed once again as they face the Raptors. Toronto is one of the best teams in the league as far as ball security on offense and forcing turnovers defensively. The Raptors give up 13.0 turnovers a game, which is 5th best in the NBA, and on defense, they force 16.2 turnovers a game, which is the 2nd best mark in the league. With the Denver offense coming back down to earth, taking on the Toronto defense is a poor mismatch for the Nuggets, which may lead to their fifth loss in their first seven games this month. The Denver offense is led by Nikola Jokic, who is doing it all once again this season with a 26-14-8 stat line. The Denver offense sits 14th in the league, ironically just ahead of Toronto, averaging 109.5 PPG. Defensively, they sit 12th as they allow 107.6 PPG.

The Toronto Raptors come into this game with a 31-23 record and sit 6th in the Eastern Conference. After going 10-6 last month, the Raptors are catching fire as they have a perfect 6-0 start to February. To start the month, their first two wins came at home in impressive fashion over two of the top teams in the conference, the Heat, and Bulls. Their success overall this season has been due to their lockdown defense and facing the Nuggets in a defensive battle. The Raptors have the edge in one key area: allowing points in the paint. On the season, the Raptors sit 8th, allowing 44.5 points, and Denver sits 24th as they allow 48.8 points. While these two marks aren’t too far off with a 4.3-point difference, looking at the home and road splits for these teams, we see a larger margin. Toronto has allowed 42.4 points in the paint per game, compared to Denver, which allows 49.3 points on the road. In a defensive-centered game, controlling the paint is key as neither of these teams is known for three-point shooting. Should Toronto keep control as they have so far at home this season, the Denver offense will have to find a way to be effective from range, which is certainly out of their comfort zone. On offense, the Raptors are led by Pascal Siakam, who is averaging 21.8 PPG this season. As a team, Toronto sits 15th, averaging 109.1 PPG. On defense, they sit 9th as they allow 106.9 PPG.

Nuggets on the Road

The Denver Nuggets come in with an even 15-15 road record so far this season. The Nuggets have been blanked so far this month, going 0-3 on the road but have played considerably well against the spread recently. Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as road underdogs. While these stats are good, the Nuggets will be playing back-to-back nights on the road as last night they were in Boston. Playing on no days’ rest, the Nuggets are 2-7 straight up this season and are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven. After a physical night against the Celtics, Denver will likely struggle against an even better defensive team, which is why the odds and myself lean with the Raptors in this one.

Raptors at Home

The Raptors return home after a three-game road trip to a Scotiabank Arena, where they are 16-12 this season. While a winning record at home is always the expectation, the Raptors have exceeded expectations for bettors as of late. Toronto is 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record. The Raptors have also delivered at home when expected to win, going 10-2 ATS in their last twelve games as a home favorite. Regardless of rest coming into this game, the Raptors defense has been more consistent than the Nuggets and has sprinkled in some impressive offensive outings in recent games as well. Given the Raptors do come in with a day of rest and host a Denver team that has been sliding, a 3.5-point spread is more than attainable to cover.

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The Historicals

Saturday night will be the first time the Nuggets and Raptors meet this season. Looking back at the last two seasons, these teams are an even 2-2 in their last four games, though the Raptors have won two of the last three.

How the Public is Betting the Nuggets vs. Raptors

80% are betting the Raptors against the spread.

73% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 222.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Denver Nuggets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
  • The Denver Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on 0 days’ rest.
  • The Toronto Raptors are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
  • The Toronto Raptors are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams with a winning road record.
  • Over is 10-1 in the Raptors’ last 11 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 8-1 in the last nine games between the Nuggets and Raptors in Toronto.
  • The Denver Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in Toronto.

Collin’s Pick for Nuggets/Raptors

This cross-conference matchup features two of the better defensive teams this season. After a dominant stretch of games last month, the Nuggets have since come back to earth as their offense has receded to their mid-tier role. The Raptors haven’t had a dominant stretch offensively this season but haven’t had to as their defense has leveled up recently and has put down some of the better teams in the league recently. The Raptors already have the edge in this defensive showdown based on stats over the season and their play so far this month, and in addition, come in more rested as Denver plays back-to-back nights. Take the Raptors to cover the 3.5-point spread. Question: Who you betting on the Super Bowl tomorrow? If your planning on betting props, you might want to check out Kevin West’s Super Bowl prop bet predictions article! It’s on fire!