Milwaukee Bucks vs. Philadelphia 76ers Predictions ATS 11/9/21

by | Nov 9, 2021 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (4-6 SU, 4-6-0 ATS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (8-3 SU, 7-4-0 ATS)

When: Tuesday, Nov. 9th, 2021, 7:30 (ET)

Where: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA


Point Spread: MIL -6.5/PHI +6.5 (Opened at 6.5)

Total: O/U 222.5 (Opened at 222.5)

Money Line: MIL -261/ PHI +207

Power Rating: MIL -7

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Probable Starting Lineups

Milwaukee Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday, PG George Hill, SG Grayson Allen, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis

Philadelphia 76ers: PG Tyrese Maxey, SG Seth Curry, SG Furkan Korkmaz, SF Danny Green, C Andre Drummond

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks:C Brook Lopez *Out* (Back), F Khris Middleton *Out* (Covid), G Donte DiVincenzo *Out* (Ankle)

Philadelphia 76ers:C Joel Embiid *Out* (Covid), G Matisse Thybulle *Out* (Covid), G Isaiah Joe *Out* (Covid), G Danny Green *Probable* (Hamstring), F Tobias Harris *Out* (Covid), G Ben Simmons *Out* (Personal)

Recent Form

The reigning champion Milwaukee Bucks have had a lackluster start to the season at 4-6. In their last two games, the Bucks suffered losses in which they led at halftime. Last Friday, in their contest with the Knicks, they let a 21-point lead slip away and lost by 15 in the end. The Bucks most notable win was their first over the nets. Their other three came over teams in the bottom half of the league, and they’ve struggled against better teams. Milwaukee has dealt with injuries to this year and now will be without Middleton for a stretch as he recovers from Covid. The Bucks average 106.7 PPG offensively and give up 108.6 PPG on defense, giving them a -1.9-point differential through their first ten games.

The Philadelphia 76ers are off to an impressive 8-3 start without Ben Simmons. The 76ers have had some notable wins on the season, handing the Chicago Bulls two of their three losses. Philadelphia also got some temporary revenge over the Hawks, who knocked them out of last season’s playoffs. Even though Philly has lost to both New York teams, they still sit atop of the Atlantic division. Looking at the team statistics, the 76ers average an admirable 109.7 PPG offensively, but it’s their defense to thank for their record as they give up just 102.6 PPG. This gives them a 7.1-point differential through 11 games played on the season.

Grabbing Boards

Undoubtedly, being a good rebounding team can be a difference-maker in any game, whether it creates a second chance for your offense or you take one away from the opposition. Tuesday night’s contest shows us two different teams in rebounding. The visiting Bucks average a “middle of the road” 53.7 total rebounds per game on the season. Compared to the 76ers, however, this stat looks leaps and bounds better, as Philadelphia only averages 47.7 rebounds a game, which is dead last in the NBA. This means that the Bucks have a chance at six more shots than the 76ers, which, when you do the math, could be at least a 12-point swing. On top of already being the worst rebounding team in the league, they are without Joel Embiid for the near future, who in his career averages 11.2 rebounds a game. The extra possessions that we may see in favor of the Bucks will give them a good chance to steal this game in Philly.

Pace of Play

Looking at the pace of play between these two teams, we will see very different styles on the court. The 76ers are a team that likes to slow things down and move the ball late into the shot clock as they are the slowest-paced team in the NBA. Philadelphia averages 98.3 possessions per game and is only one of two teams under the league’s 100 possessions per game mark. The 76ers are playing out of character this year with the slowest pace, as last year they were in the top 10 of fastest-paced teams. Switching to the Bucks, we see a faster-paced team that averages 104.1 possessions a game. With three-point shooters in Middleton, DiVincenzo, and Allen, we often see a quick trigger finger from range. Also, adding to their pace, getting the ball to Giannis going downhill is quick to get to the bucket in the shot clock. Dissecting this, a slow-paced team heavily relies on defense to keep up with the high-scoring opponent. The Bucks will be able to tee off on this as two important defensive players that help dictate that slow pace for the 76ers won’t be on the court in Embiid and Simmons.

Injured vs. More Injured

An important factor in every game that doesn’t show up on the box score is injuries. The two teams at hand have seen their fair share of players missing time this season. Anytime the Bucks and 76ers face-off, it’s usually the Giannis and Embiid show. Unfortunately for the 76ers, they will take the floor without Embiid, which gives an immediate edge in the Bucks favor. Notable Philadelphia contributors that will also miss action Tuesday night are Matisse Thybulle and Tobias Harris. On the Milwaukee side, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez will be unavailable. The Bucks have been able to win three of their four games this year without Lopez, though, so the loss of Middleton may be something to pay attention to as they will be without him for a handful of games. Despite injuries on both teams, I still give Milwaukee the edge in this game as they have more playmakers to step up in those positions.

The Historicals

Recent history has favored the Bucks as they go into Tuesday’s game on a five-game win streak against the 76ers. The last time they faced, we saw a lopsided affair where the Bucks won by 38 points in the 132-94 final. In fact, two games last year, the 76ers were without Embiid in their losses to the Bucks, including one at home.

How the Public is Betting the Bucks vs. 76ers

54% are betting the 76ers against the spread.

67% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 222.5.

More Picks: Get Joe’s Expert Blazers vs. Clippers Predictions

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Milwaukee Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • The Milwaukee Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their previous six games.
  • The Philadelphia 76ers are 4-0 ATS when playing on 0 days’ rest.
  • The Milwaukee Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
  • The Under is 7-0 in the Bucks’ previous seven games.
  • The Under is 7-1 in 76ers last eight home games.

Collin’s Pick for the Game

Tuesday’s game is a great opportunity for the Bucks to get closer to a winning record against a 76ers team without their best player. The Bucks have found a way to beat the 76ers consistently the last two seasons and will move their win streak to six over Philly. Take the Bucks to cover the 6.5-point spread. In a game filled with injuries on both sides and two middle-of-the-road offenses, the point total of 222.5 seems generous. Take under on the total for this game as well. Bet your NBA picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets Sportsbook! They have an AWESOME rewards program!