Pistons vs. Blazers Point Spread Pick 1/2/23

by | Jan 2, 2023 | nba

Detroit Pistons (10-29 SU, 19-19-1 ATS) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (18-17 SU, 21-14-0 ATS)
When: Monday, January 2nd, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Moda Center, OR, Portland
TV: ROOT

Point Spread: DET +9.5/ POR -9.5
Total: 232.5
Money Line: Detroit Pistons +350/ -466

Notable Injuries

Pistons

  • Killian Hayes (Out) Suspension
  • Cade Cunningham (Out) Shin
  • Isaiah Livers (Out) Shoulder

Trail Blazers

  • Jusuf Nurkic (Questionable) Illness
  • Justise Winslow (Out) Ankle
  • Nassir Little (Out) Hip
  • Keon Johnson (Questionable) Illness
  • Greg Brown III (Questionable) Illness

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Detroit is 10-29 overall. When taking to the road, Detroit has a mark of 5-16 and a win percentage of 24%. Currently, the team is 15th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 19-19-1 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 2-3 in their past five games and 2-3 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS.

In their upcoming game, Detroit will be looking to capitalize on their recent win over the Timberwolves. Bojan Bogdanovic led the way for the Pistons with 28 points. Despite being 7-point underdogs on the spread, the Pistons were able to secure an ATS win.

Heading into the game, Portland is 18-17 overall. When playing at home, Portland has a mark of 8-6 and a win percentage of 57%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 21-14-0 vs. the spread. In Portland’s last five games, the Trail Blazers have a straight-up record of 1-4 while going 1-4 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 5-5 and 5-5 ATS.

In their most recent matchup, the Warriors defeated Portland with a score of 118-112. Damian Lillard scored the most points for the team with 34, but it was not enough to earn the win. The Trail Blazers were 1 point ahead going into the game.

The Historicals

In their two wins over the Pistons, the Trail Blazers won by scores of 110-92 and 115-92. Similar to their season-long average, the Pistons averaged 103.5 points per game vs. the Trail Blazers. On the other side, Portland saw an improvement in their scoring numbers when playing the Pistons, as they averaged 114.5 points per game in these matchups. Over the last five head to head meetings, the Trail Blazers have averaged 115 points per game compared to 103 for Detroit. This has led to an ATS record of 4-1 for Portland. Over the course of these games, they averaged 218 points per game, leading a 2-3 over-under record.

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Analysis

Coming into the game, Detroit’s offense is ranked just 23rd in scoring at 111.7 points per game. This has come while being the 16th-ranked unit in pace. So far, the Pistons are averaging 99.7 possessions per contest. When looking at the team’s 3-point shooting numbers, they profile as an average team in both percentage and attempts. For the season, the Pistons’ offense is ranked 15th in 3-point attempts per game while connecting at a rate of 35.3%. Defense has been an issue for Detroit, as they are currently allowing 112.55 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.41% of their looks from outside.

Going into today’s game, Bojan Bogdanovic is the leading scorer for the Detroit team, with an average of 20.8 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 48.1%. The team’s second top scorer is Jaden Ivey, who is averaging 15.1 points per game.

This season, the Trail Blazers’ offense averages 112.3 points per game, which is 19th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Portland has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 97.1 possessions per game. Portland’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 38.2% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 33.6 3-point shots per game, placing them 13th in the NBA. The defense has been a problem for Portland, as they are currently allowing 115.11 points per game. The team’s 3-point shooting defense has been a problem this year. So far, opposing offenses have hit 36.95% of their looks from outside.

Going into today’s game, Anfernee Simons is the leading scorer for the Portland team, with an average of 22.4 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 43.7%. The team’s second top scorer is Jerami Grant, who is averaging 22.0 points per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The Pistons are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • The Pistons are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
  • The Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
  • The Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Blazers have lost four out of their last five games and have no right being favored by this many points versus a team that has an interior presence. I’m not excited about it, but I’ll be making a small bet on the Pistons to come in within +9.5.