Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
Friday, October 23, 2026
9:30 PM ET, Moody Center, Austin, Texas
The Spurs are 5.5-point favorites over the Rockets, and the total is 227.5. My play is Under 227.5 (-110).
This isn’t in San Antonio. The Spurs bring this one up I-35 to the Moody Center in Austin, one of three home games they’ll play there this season. Expect a Spurs crowd, just not the usual building.
Wembanyama needs a reset. The Spurs went 62-20 last season, took down Oklahoma City in a seven-game conference final and then lost the NBA Finals to the Knicks in five. Their encore started badly. OKC beat them 116-104 in San Antonio on Tuesday, and Victor Wembanyama went 1-for-13 from the field. He still grabbed 13 rebounds and blocked 6 shots, which tells you how much he matters even on a bad night.
He sounded more annoyed than worried afterward. “I might be overthinking it,” he said. “I need to think less, probably.” I’d expect a sharper, angrier version on Friday. That’s bad news for whoever drives into the paint.
Houston looked like a contender again. The Rockets hammered Dallas 128-110 in their opener. Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. each scored 30, Alperen Sengun added a double-double, and Fred VanVleet dished 11 assists without a turnover in his first game back from a torn ACL. A 38-12 second quarter ended it early.
That’s the version of Houston fans want after last spring, when the Lakers bounced the Rockets in six games in the first round.
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Why I’m going low. Start with tempo. Houston played at the second-slowest pace in the league last season, about 96 possessions a game, according to Basketball Reference. The Rockets like to grind, pound the offensive glass and make you defend for 24 seconds.
Then look at the defenses. San Antonio allowed 111.3 points per 100 possessions last season, third-best in the NBA. Houston ranked sixth. In plain English, both teams make you work for every bucket, and that’s before Wembanyama starts swatting shots.
The Dallas game also flatters Houston’s offense a bit. The Mavericks committed 21 turnovers, which handed the Rockets easy points in transition. The Spurs won’t be that generous. They’re too long and too well coached to give away cheap runouts.
The market is leaning the other way. The total opened at 225.5 and has climbed to 227.5, with the large majority of early tickets on the Over. People remember the 145-120 Spurs blowout in March. I remember that two of the four meetings last season finished at 217 or fewer.
Injury check. San Antonio’s De’Aaron Fox (right wrist) and Keldon Johnson (mouth laceration) are questionable, and Tobias Harris (calf) is out. Houston lists Steven Adams (calf) and Reed Sheppard (knee) as questionable. If Fox sits, the Spurs lose a pace-pusher, which helps the Under.
The case against me. These offenses have serious firepower. Durant can score 35 in his sleep, and the Spurs’ three-guard look with Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and Fox wants to run. If Wembanyama’s jumper comes back and both teams get hot from deep, 230 can show up in a hurry. Both teams also play Saturday, which could make the fourth quarter a little sloppy on defense.
Final score projection. I see a physical, half-court game where the Spurs’ size wins out late. Spurs 113, Rockets 107.
The Pick: Under 227.5 (-110)
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