Sacramento Kings vs. Philadelphia 76ers Pick
Sacramento Kings (33-34 SU, 39-27-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (43-25 SU, 32-36 ATS)
When: Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 7:00 PM ET
Where: Wells Fargo Arena – Philadelphia, PA
By: Keith Franks, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SAC +9.5 / PHI -9.5 (5dimes)
Power Rankings: Philadelphia +8
Takeaways From Sacramento and Philadelphia’s Most Recent Games
The Kings are presently riding a two-game losing streak capped off by their most recent loss in Boston, last night. Closing as a 7.5-point underdog, the Sixers managed to foster a cover when they fell to the C’s by a score of 126-120.
On an opposite note, the Sixers are currently enjoying a two-game winning streak. Philadelphia was last in action on Tuesday when they hosted the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers and defeated them 106-99. Philadelphia was spotting a lofty number to the Cavs as a 15-point favorite and as a result were nowhere close to covering.
How the Public is Betting the Sacramento-Philadelphia Game
From the opening of this market, action has rolled in on the 76ers. As a result, the line has moved upward by half of a point from the 76ers opening as a nine-point favorite.
The Kings have held the upper hand in this series as of late as they have won and covered in the last three meetings between these two sides. Most recently, Sacramento hosted Philadelphia in February and staged an upset as a three-point underdog when they defeated the Sixers 115-108.
Neither team has any injury concerns to key personnel heading into this cross-conference collision.
Rest Advantages and Concerns
The Kings will be playing the last match of a four-game road trip on one day’s rest after last night’s loss in Boston. The Kings are 3-6 SU in back-to-backs this season. The good news for Sacramento is that they get to head back West and begin a four-game home-stand against the Bulls on Sunday. For the 76ers they will playing this game on three days’ rest and will conclude their home-stand here against the Kings before beginning a two-game road-trip that starts in Milwaukee on Sunday.
Can Bench Play and Turnovers Extend Kings Win Streak Against Sixers?
In yesterday’s analysis I brought attention to the fact that the Kings run into trouble when they are away from home. After last night’s defeat in Boston, the Kings now stand at 13-20 SU in road games. For the Kings this could be an out of the frying pan and into the fryer kind of situation as they are facing a Philadelphia team that has an even better home record (27-9 SU) than Boston (who are 25-10 SU at home this year). For Sacramento’s sake they do have a few intangibles working in their favor. Firstly, they have the momentum and mojo of knowing they have won the last three match-ups. This will give the Kings confidence against the Sixers but in turn Philly will be hungry to beat Sacramento. For the Kings to truly establish themselves in this contest, they will have to turn to their bench which provides them an edge. Sacramento’s bench averages 41.8 points per match which is nearly 10 points greater than their Philadelphia counterparts who average 31.9 bench points per game. This is a significant advantage that the Kings could potentially hone. Combining this edge with an advantage in the turnover department, the Kings could hang around and/or come in under a rather large number to take back. Given the fact that the Kings were 3, 8, and 6.5 point underdogs in their last three wins against the Sixers, the amount of points seem too good to be true.
Can Philadelphia’s Physical Presence On The Boards End Sacramento’s Recent Spate of Success?
There are several advantages that the Sixers can utilize to have its way with the Kings. The most notable edge relies in rebounding. On the year, the Sixers stand fourth in the league in total rebounds per game (47.4 total boards per contest). Philly has the most favorable match-up imaginable as they are against a Sacramento team that is the worst in the NBA in total opponent rebounds, giving away 48.7 rebounds per contest to the opposition. In addition to this edge, Philly’s offense sits fifth in the NBA (114.8 points per contest) while Sacramento’s defense sits 26th in the league in scoring (115 points per match). This game can easily get out of hand if Philly imposes its will on the boards against Sacramento and gains more opportunities to take advantage of the Kings’ accommodating defense.
An emerging betting trend that has taken shape is the fact that the Kings are 7-19 ATS in the previous 26 meetings between these two opponents.
Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Philadelphia -9.5
I am betting the Sixers -9.5 at -105 at 5Dimes. Let me preface this by saying that I really feel for the Kings here. Playing a back-to-back against two teams that could very well likely represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals this year is a tall order for anyone. When you couple this with the fact that the Kings have had to play both the Celtics and Sixers on the road in said back-to-backs it makes life that much more difficult for Sacramento. The fact that Philadelphia has incentive to win here and end Sacramento’s winning streak against them while also having two extra days to prepare, makes this all but a scheduled loss for the Kings. Regardless of that narrative, the fact remains that Sacramento cannot play with the NBA’s better teams as they are now 11-25 SU against teams with a .500 record or better. Contrarily, the Sixers bully teams that are below .500 as they are 26-7 SU against teams with a losing record on the year…teams like Sacramento. I expect the Sixers to rout the Kings and cover with ease.