Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks Odds & Pick 11/1/21

by | Nov 1, 2021 | nba

Toronto Raptors (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS ) vs. New York Knicks (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)
When: Monday November 1 2021, 07:30 PM (ET)
Where: Madison Square Garden: New York, New York
TV: MSG Network

Point Spread: TOR 6.5/NYK -6.5 Opened at ( NYK -6.5 )
Total:212.5 (Opened at 212.5 )
Money Line: Toronto +135/ New York -180
Power Rating:Knicks -1
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Probable Starting Lineups

Raptors PG Fred Vanvleet, SG Gary Trent, SF OG Anunoby, PF Scottie Barnes, C Precious Achiuwa
Knicks: PG Kemba Walker, SG Evan Fournier, SF RJ Barrett, PF Julius Randle, C Mitchell Robinson

Key Injuries

Raptors
Nerlens Noel: knee (OUT)

Knicks
Yuta Watanabe: calf (OUT)

Recent Form

The Toronto Raptors enter today’s game, having won 3 straight games. In their past seven contests, the Raptors have played above .500 basketball, going 4-3.

Through 7 games, they rank 6th in the Eastern Conference.
Among NBA teams, they have played the 27th most challenging schedule.

As they get set to take on the Knicks, the Raptors look to continue paying well vs. Eastern Conference opponents. So far, they have an in-conference record of 4-2

For bettors, taking the Toronto Raptors to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they cover the spread in 42.90% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is 4.6.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is small forward Scottie Barnes. So far, Barnes is averaging 18.14 points per game. This output places him 11th in his position group.

The Raptors’ best three-point shooter has been OG Anunoby, who connects on 2.86 shots from downtown per game. Scottie Barnes has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 8.86 boards per game.

The New York Knicks enter today’s game, having won 3 straight games. In their past six contests, the Knicks are one of the league’s hottest teams, going 5-1

Although it is still very early, New York sits atop the Eastern Conference. Among NBA teams, they have played the 25th toughest schedule.

As they get set to take on the Raptors, the Knicks look to continue their strong play vs. Eastern Conference opponents. So far, they have an in-conference record of 4-1

For bettors, taking the Toronto Raptors to cover the spread has been a winning bet as they are covering in 66.70% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is 2.2.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is power forward Julius Randle. So far, Randle is averaging 20.83 points per game. This output places him 11th among small forwards.

The Knicks’ best three-point shooter has been newcomer Evan Fournier, connecting on 3.83 shots from downtown per game. Julius Randle has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 11.17 boards per game.

Opportunity Analysis

This matchup has the making of being an extremely slow-paced game. When the Knicks face off vs. teams similar to the Raptors, the games average six fewer possessions than expected. On average, New York wins 46% of the time.

Playing at a slow pace has a significant effect on Toronto, as they defeat slow-paced teams at a 30% rate.

Two Inneficient Offenses

Both the Toronto Raptors and New York Knicks feature offenses below the league average in offensive efficiency. This matchup should favor the Knicks as the Raptors allow bad offenses to score more than their expected output. When facing teams who struggle to score, the Knicks hold teams below the league average.

New York also has the advantage in historical win percentage as they walk away with a win 59% of the time vs. bad offenses

Good Defenses Collide

Historically, each team scores above the league average when facing top defenses. However, this offense only leads to victories 38% of the time for the Knicks, compared to 33% for Toronto.

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How the Public is Betting the Raptors vs Knicks

68% are betting the Knicks against the spread.
67% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 211.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road.
  • Toronto is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games when playing New York.
  • New York is 5-1 SU in its last six games.
  • New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing at home against Toronto.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

To start the season, the Knicks have put the NBA on notice that they will be a factor in the Eastern Conference. Their strong defense and preference to slow the game down puts pressure on their opponent’s game plan.

Given that Toronto is just an average offense, I expect the Knicks to frustrate the Raptors. Even though New York is no offensive juggernaut, the addition of Evan Fournier has given them an offensive weapon they did not have last season.

Although I expect New York to win the game, I am leaning toward taking the Raptors to cover the spread. If you are not feeling confident in this, I recommend taking the game to go under its line of 212.5.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

For the Raptors, I will be taking OG Anunoby to finish below his line of 16.5. Anunoby benefits from having a lot of opportunities. The Knicks are excellent at limiting the chances of opponent scorers.

I will be taking Julius Randle to also finish below his line of 23.5 points. New York tends to spread the scoring load around. Randle will have a big impact on this game but won’t surpass 23.5.