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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns Pick

by | Last updated Nov 1, 2018 | nfl

Kansas City Chiefs (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-5-1 SU, 5-3 ATS)
When: November 4, 2018, 1:00 PM EST
Where: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
By: Rick Wise

Point Spread: KC -8/CLE +8
Over/Under: 51.5

Takeaways From Week 8

The Kansas City Chiefs improved to 7-1 and maintained a one game lead over the San Diego Chargers atop the AFC West after a relatively easy 30-23 victory over the Denver Broncos Sunday.

Kansas City was outdone by the Broncos on the stat sheet in terms of total offense, but it sure didn’t look that way. Patrick Mahomes had another one of those days that make you wonder how nine other teams passed on him in the draft. He finished 24-of-34 for 303 yards and 4 touchdowns, notching his franchise-record seventh consecutive game in a season with at least 300 yards passing. Mahomes also entered the record books as the fourth quarterback in NFL history (along with Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Dan Marino) to throw at least four touchdown passes in three consecutive games. In a word, the dude is already a superstar.

Do Sportsbooks undervalue home field?

While Mahomes is the vast majority of what make this offense tick, there are a number of crucial moving parts, many of which came out to play on Sunday. Kareem Hunt carried 16 times for 50 yards and added another 5 catches for 36 yards and a touchdown, Sammy Watkins, who had his biggest day in a Chiefs uniform, snagged 8 receptions for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns,Travis Kelce caught 6 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown and Tyreek Hill had three catches for 70 yards.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns were on the wrong end of a 33-18 drubbing against the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday in a game that saw the Browns defense get trampled for over 400 total yards and the offense struggle to find its footing.

Once again, the Cleveland defense failed to keep James Conner in check. When these two played to a draw back in Week 1, Conner very nearly put up 200 yards from scrimmage, rushing 31 times for 135 yards and 2 touchdowns and catching 5 passes for 57 yards. Sunday was essentially a carbon copy. He carried 24 times for 146 yards and 2 touchdowns and caught 5 passes for 66 yards in accounting for about half of Pittsburgh’s offense.

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On the offensive side, Baker Mayfield seems to have plateaued for the moment. In his first few starts, Mayfield looked like the next rookie quarterback sensation. He’s come plummeting back to earth lately, though, and Sunday was maybe his worst showing under center. He finished 22-of-36 for 180 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception but outside of Jarvis Landry, he hasn’t had a whole lot to work with. Unfortunately, Cleveland’s situation at receiver isn’t likely to change for the better any time soon so the hope is that Mayfield will continue to get better through a season that probably won’t.

The Historicals

These two have a bit of a history. Their first meeting was way back in 1971 and the Chiefs lead the series 12-11-2. The Chiefs have also had the upper hand as of late, winning 6 of the last 10 matchups dating back to 1994.

Injury Concerns

For Kansas City, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game are S Eric Berry (heel), LB Justin Houston (hamstring), LB Anthony Hitchens (ribs), WR Tyreek Hill (ribs).

For Cleveland, listed as questionable for Sunday are CB E.J. Gaines (concussion), LB Joe Schobert (hamstring). WR Rashard Higgins (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday.

When the Chiefs have the Ball

Patrick Mahomes leads the league in passing yards, passing touchdowns and total QBR, so it’s a bit of a surprise that the Chiefs are only putting the ball in the air 59.6% of the time (17th most in the NFL) versus running it the other 40.4% (16th most n the NFL). But that can only lead to good things against a Cleveland defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in every statistical category. Look for Mahomes and company to light it up again on Sunday and maybe get back in the record books again this week.

When the Browns have the Ball

The Cleveland offense may have Baker Mayfield at the controls now but they’ve been outgained in total output by a god clip the last three times out and in 4 of the last 5 games. They’re passing the ball 60.5% of the time and running it 39.5% of the time, percentages they’d probably like to continue against KC’s 31st-ranked total defense, 29th-ranked pass defense and 25th-ranked run defense.

Betting Trends

  • Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
  • Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games on the road
  • Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
  • Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
  • Cleveland is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
  • Cleveland is 2-22-1 SU in its last 25 games
  • Cleveland is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games at home
  • Cleveland is 3-17-1 SU in its last 21 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland’s last 17 games at home
  • Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City

Weather Report

Temperatures of 50 degrees are expected for this one under partly cloudy skies with 59% humidity and 10 mph winds from the south.
Rick Wise’s Pick: Kansas City -8

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