Predictem doesn’t offer a line movement tracker, but this page is as good as anything you’ll find. First,  because it’s free. Second, because we reverse engineer the line move, pinpoint what caused it, and provide analysis which helps us as football bettors determine if it’s worth betting. Lastly, these are the bets wiseguys, sharps and astute handicappers are making. We’ll update this page multiple times per week with final updates late Saturday night. We highly recommend bookmarking us, as this should be one of the more profitable NFL picks pages you’ll find on the web!

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NFL Line Move Plays

Wildcard Weekend

49ers vs Eagles — OVER 44.5. This total has dropped below the key number of 45, and that feels like a strong reaction to recent form. Philadelphia’s offense has been tough to trust, but San Francisco’s defense is beat up and not playing at the same level it was earlier in the season.

According to Yahoo News, Trent Williams is expected to play, but it’s not fully locked in yet. He’s listed as a game-time decision, and that matters. If he’s out there, even less than 100%, it’s a major upgrade for the Niners’ offense. Still, this is one where you wait for final confirmation before getting aggressive. The number is better now — just make sure the lineup agrees. KW

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Week 18

Eagles -4.5 — This move looks big on the surface, but it’s a little misleading once you slow it down. Yes, the line dropped hard after Hurts was ruled out, but Washington isn’t exactly stepping into an advantage here. They’re starting their own backup and playing this like an evaluation game, not a must-win. The market reacted fast to the quarterback news and pushed this through multiple key numbers, but that feels like an overcorrection. Tanner McKee has already shown he can function in this role, and Philadelphia’s depth still overwhelms what Washington is putting on the field right now. Public sees “backup QB” and grabs the points — sharp money is comfortable laying less than a touchdown with the better roster.

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Week 17

Saints -1.5 — This is one of those spots where the betting splits can fool you. The public is riding the Saints’ late-season momentum, but the reason this number flipped isn’t casual money. Sharps attacked Tennessee early once the injury report confirmed how broken that secondary really is. Three safeties on IR, a starting corner out, and now you’re asking replacement-level players to hold up in coverage. That’s where the line move comes from. Shough has been steady, the Saints’ pass rush is heating up, and the market clearly doesn’t trust the Titans to protect their rookie QB or stop anyone right now. Public likes the story — sharp money likes the matchup.

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Week 16

Bengals -4 — This move makes sense once you factor in the quarterback switch. Benching Tua changes everything, and Ewers looked overwhelmed when he stepped in. That puts Miami in a tough spot offensively, especially against a defense that can sit on short throws. Burrow wasn’t sharp last week, but Higgins coming back matters, and it gives Cincinnati its full look on the outside again. This opened light, got bet up, and the matchup still favors the Bengals. Miami’s margin for error is thin with this setup.

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Week 15

The Kansas City Chiefs opened as -4.5 home favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers. The line has moved up to KC -6 despite only 40% backing Mahomes and Co.

Week 14

The New Orleans Saints opened as +9.5 road underdogs at Tampa Bay. The line has since dropped to +8 despite only 37% of bettors backing the Saints. TB is a pass funnel defense and the Saints coaching staff have given Tyler Shough the green light to sling it. They should make a game of it against a poor TB secondary with a QB who is beat up and possibly missing a key OL.

Week 13

The Cleveland Browns opened as +6 home dogs to the banged up 49ers. The line has dropped a half point to +5.5, despite only 37% of the public backing the Browns. The Niners are coming off a short week with travel to the eastern time zone. They’re banged up, the weather is bad and the Browns are really good at stopping what the Niners try to do. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cleve. wins straight up here.

Week 12

The New Orleans Saints opened as +2.5 home underdogs to Atlanta and have moved four points to -1.5, despite only 37% of the public betting them.

Week 11

The Seattle Seahawks opened as +4.5 at the Los Angeles Rams. The line has dropped to +3.5 (and 3 at some sportsbooks) despite only 39% of the public betting on the Hawks.

Week 10

The New England Patriots opened as +4.5 road underdogs at Tampa Bay. This is a really bad matchup for the Bucs as Drake Maye is slinging the ball over over the field and the Bucs secondary is putrid. The line dropped despite only 32% of the public betting on the Pats.

Week 9

The New York Giants opened as +3.5 home underdogs to the Niners and have been bet down to +2.5 despite nobody betting them. Games rarely cross the number three on NFL spreads. The Niners are banged up and the Giants are playing surprisingly good football and have a formidable defensive line.

Week 8

The Houston Texans opened as +1.5 home underdogs to SF and the line has moved to Hou -2 despite only 37% of the public betting the Texans. Bet Hou -2.

Week 7

The Vikings opened as +3 home dogs to Philly and have been down to +2 at most books. Minnesota has gotten healthier with the return of two key starting offensive lineman. The Eagles aren’t playing great right now. The line move happened despite only 39% betting the Vikes.

Week 6

The New Orleans Saints opened as +3 home underdogs to New England and the line has moved to -3.5. The Patriots secondary is really banged up. I like the Saints to keep momentum rolling and win this game straight up.

Week 5

The Cleveland Browns opened as +7 underdogs against the Vikings and the line has dropped to +3.5.  Minnesota is missing 4 offensive linemen, including 3 starters. Cleveland has a monster defensive line that should dominate and keep the game close.

Week 4

The Minnesota Vikings opened at -1.5 and have moved to -2.5 despite only 48% of the public backing them.
The Atlanta Falcons opened as +3.5 home underdogs to the Washington Commanders and have moved 5 points to -1.5 despite only 42% of the public betting them.

Week 3

The New England Patriots opened as -1.5 home favs vs. the Steelers. The line has moved three points, no favoring Pittsburgh by -1.5. The public is betting the Steelers to the tune of 61%. We’re fading the move and betting the Pats at +1.5.

Week 2

The Indianapolis Colts opened as +3.5 home favs against the Broncos and the line has been bet down to +1 despite only 43% backing Indy.

The New York Jets opened as +8.5 home underdogs against the Bills. The line has been bet down to +5.5 despite only 44% of bettors backing the Jets.

The New Orleans Saints opened as +7 home dogs against the Niners and the line has gone down to +3 after injuries have hit key players on the SF’s roster. All this despite only 38% backing N.O.

Week 1

The Atlanta Falcons opened at +2.5 and have dropped to +1 despite only 36% of the public backing them. Tampa’s defense is vulnerable!

 

What Causes NFL Line Moves

There are a number of variables that cause a point spread or money line odds to move. The first notion is that bookies like to have balanced action. This way, you bet one side, I bet the other, and they collect the vigorish. Mind you; this is a perfect world type of situation for the book. I use the word “Notion” because I’ve personally seen a sportsbook be completely one-sided and hold its ground because they like its position. So it’s not always a lock that they’re trying to balance action.

When the sportsbook gets one-sided, they’ve move the point spread in an effort to attempt to attract bettors on the other team. They obviously don’t want to move the spread too much, otherwise, a margin is created where a bettor who got in early can come back and bet on the other side creating what’s called a middle. Sharp bettors jump at the opportunity to bet “middles”, as they only need to cash in one in every 21 bets to break even. This is a pretty astute way of making money, and believe me, when I saw there are people out there making a living doing so. (more so in college basketball)

The second reason lines move in the NFL is sharp action. Astute handicappers with big bankrolls hammer one side of a game which forces the books to move their lines. These bettors are referred to as sharps, wiseguys, and, if it’s a group, “betting syndicates.” This type of a bettor is super rare but has the ability to move lines with their wagering action. This bettor has boots on the ground at practices, is tied into team beat writers, has computer programs that run simulations and is tuned in to the weather, and has very deep knowledge of the game. If you see a line move on a game and can’t decipher what caused it, there’s a good chance a sharp has found value and acted on it.

The third reason lines move is the weather. Rain, wind, and snow create issues for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends alike. Rain makes it tough to get a footing and makes for a slippery ball. The wind obviously affects the flight of the ball and creates problems when it exceeds 15MPH. Lastly, snow creates slipperiness and visibility issues and, when in big amounts, can make some players not want to be on the field. Today’s NFL is a bit different than that of the old days, as there are more domed stadiums in play these days. Tip: As noted prior, wind affects a quarterbacks passing ability when it exceeds 15 miles per hour. This is not my opinion. It’s statistically proven. Keep a close eye on the NFL stadium’s weather. It can make you some good money!

The Holy Grail: Reverse Line Movement

If you’re a novice football bettor but serious about winning, we highly recommend keeping an eye on line moves where the general public is betting in the opposite direction. This is a clear sign of sharp action and is one of few instances in which we don’t have a problem with betting on a game blindly. Example: The Los Angeles Chargers are a -7 point favorite against the Green Bay Packers. The line drops down to Green Bay +4. However, the general consensus is that 70% of bettors are siding with the Chargers. This is a huge signal that sharps are hammering the team whose point spread has dropped. The question now becomes, “has the line moved so much that there’s no more value?” This is a good time to mention the importance of knowing NFL key numbers (common final score margins). Generally speaking, these numbers consist of 3, 4, 6, and 7, and if you cross too many, there’s a good chance that you got to the party too late and the value doesn’t exist anymore. NFL betting isn’t easy!

Live Betting

Needless to say, if you’re betting a game live-in-progress, the line is going to move often. This article was built with pre-game betting in mind. On an unrelated note, numerous sportsbooks offer live wagering. Most of the platforms out there leave something to be desired, as you have to click a bunch of times to get your bet down, and oftentimes, the damn line has moved while you’re attempting to complete this protocol. If you’re a person who enjoys betting games live, we HIGHLY recommend checking out the live betting platform at Bovada Sportsbook. It absolutely blows away all the rest in terms of quality, ease of use, and pick-to-click efficiency! They also offer a 50% signup bonus up to $250, rebates on ALL your bets; win or lose, and they pay fast if you’re using crypto!