San Francisco 49ers (0-4 SU, 3-1ATS) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)
NFL Week 5
Date/Time: Sunday, October 8th, 2017 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium Indianapolis, IN
by Keith, Expert Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: IND -1
Over/Under Total: 44
The San Francisco 49ers will head East to take on the Indianapolis Colts in a AFC/NFC match-up at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The contest will be broadcasted for regional demographics on FOX with a kick-off time scheduled for 1:00 PM ET. Both teams have combined for just one win on the year. Furthering this motif, both the Niners and Colts enter off losses in their respective Week Four contests. For San Francisco, it was a gut-wrenching loss as they fell in overtime against divisional rival Arizona. The Colts would like to forget their last performance as they were overpowered 46-18 at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks. Between the two combatants featured, the two teams have not met since 2013 where Indianapolis defeated San Francisco in the Golden State by a score of 27-7.
Despite San Francisco being winless this season, the Niners have been a broken slot machine in against the spread markets. San Francisco is 3-1 overall in at-the-spread plays and an incredible 2-0 ATS when they are on the road. San Francisco has just won one game in their previous six outings but have covered in five of them. What was once one of the most feared teams in the NFC just a few seasons ago has gone full circle. As a result of San Franciscos crash to the basement, they have been apparently accompanied with inflated numbers in a multitude of situations. Much of this is the work of the books to entice action on a team that no one wants a part of. However, the market is likely to correct, especially once most of the betting public have taken to them from the get-go in this situation. While the Niners are cold in the wins department, they are brick hot as a money-maker. Situationally, this fixture sets up ideal to break that trend.
Indianapolis as a whole can be a very tough sell. The fact remains though that traditionally and historically they are a difficult test to pass on their own field. Generally speaking, the Colts are a prolific team on turf even if they are not playing at 100% full health. In fact, the Colts are 2-1 at Lucas Oil Stadium in their last three outings. This of course is without Andrew Luck at the helm. Their sole defeat? An overtime loss against the same team San Francisco was beat by last week, the Cardinals of Arizona. Nevertheless, the absence of Andrew Luck has been one that has been a nightmare for Indianapolis. There is little doubt that he is the engine that drives the offense and the anchor of this entire team. Sadly, the Colts will be without him until November and while he is absent this team will likely encounter many woes. However, given the fact the AFC South as a
whole is a wide-open division, the Colts can get themselves to back to where they need to be personnel wise and make a run. However, winning games that are winnable will be essential in setting the stage for such an event to happen. This is one of those games and coach Chuck Pagano knows this.
From what has been indicated from market behavior, the 49ers have been leaned on heavily by the public. Which is makes sense given how successful they have been against the spread this year. However, as we have covered when an underdog gets this much attention it should sound alarms. The market has fallen by 1.5 points since its open as a result to money flying in on the Niners with the points. The fact Andrew Luck is absent is more compelling than the lop-sided numbers the Gold Rush has been producing against the spread as of late. However, now is the time to sell on the Niners. With respect to the fact the Colts get this one at home, they will face a competitor that may still be fatigued and out-of-order from traveling across time zones. Given the fact San Francisco is a bottom-feeder on their best day, we have to like Indianapolis chances in a virtual pick-em scenario. Spot the point.
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