San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks Pick ATS

by | Dec 26, 2019 | nfl

San Francisco 49ers (12-3 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) vs. Seattle Seahawks (11-4 SU, 7-7-1 ATS)

Date/Time: Sunday, December 29, 8:20 PM EST

Where: Century Link Stadium, Seattle, Washington


Point Spread: SF -3.5 / Sea +3.5 (GTBets - Deposit $200 and get $200 in FREE Bets!)

Over/Under Total: 47

Game Number 256 will decide the 2019 NFC West champion, with the 49ers paying a visit to the Seahawks in Seattle. Roger Goodell and company flexed the game to Sunday Night, making for an excellent game to close out the season and get everyone in the playoff mood. Sportsbooks have made San Fran 3½ point road favorites, and set the game total at 47. The play is to lay the points and take the 49ers. Here are 3 reasons.

The 49ers Offense Is Humming

San Francisco averages 30 points per game for the season, second only to the Ravens, and they have averaged 35 over the last 6 weeks. Jimmy Garoppolo has played better as the season has progressed and now has thrown 27 touchdowns to 13 picks. He spreads the ball around to all of his receivers, with George Kittle emerging as his prime target and maybe the best tight end in the league. Kittle has looked like Gronk reincarnated since coming back from a knee injury. Though Coach Kyle Shanahan favors a backfield committee, Raheem Mostert has separated himself to be the preferred running back behind Jimmy G. Mostert averages 5.6 yards per carry, and despite only logging 127 carries, he has reached the end zone 6 times on the season. SF only managed 302 yards against the Seahawks in week 10, but that was without Kittle and both of their starting tackles. Kittle strong blocking makes him a key in the running attack, so this will be a very different offense than Seattle saw earlier in the year. While the Niner offense is coming together at the right time, the Seattle defense is having issues.

Seattle has the reputation of one of the toughest D’s in the league, but this year’s squad doesn’t fit that description. To add insult to injury for the proud defense, they have multiple key players out with injuries. They allow right at 6 yards per play, are 30th in sacks and are also at the bottom of the league in opponent yards per rushing attempt - so this defense can be attacked in multiple ways. The only strength this defense has shown is to take the ball away, where they rank 3rd in the league. Garoppolo has shown a tendency to throw the ball to the other team, so he will have to focus on ball security. Arizona moved the ball pretty much at will last week in Seattle while Kyler Murray was in the game, with no pressure on Murray to speak of. They played better against backup QB Brett Hundley, but that is nothing to brag about. The Niner offense is going to move the ball and score. It’s hard to imagine them not getting to their season average of 30 points, and possibly well above that number.

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The Niner D Can Limit Seattle’s Offense

If it weren’t for Lamar Jackson we would probably be talking about Russell Wilson as the expected MVP. He had an MVP caliber game against the Niners in week 9 when he led the Hawks to an overtime win. Wilson has thrown 29 touchdowns while only tossing 5 interceptions and makes defenses cover the whole field. Seattle has lost Josh Gordon for the year, so they will rely on Tyler Lockett and rookie D.K. Metcalf on the outside. Both have been excellent this year, but Wilson’s problem has been lack of time to throw the ball. He has been sacked 46 times, including 4 times by Arizona last week. The offensive line will have all they can handle this week against one of the best D lines in the league. Seattle’s offensive identity is to run the ball, but it’s unclear who will be doing the running. Chris Carson has been the workhorse, but he is done for the year with a hip injury, and his backup C.J. Prosise also left the Cardinal game hurt and won’t play this week. That left Travis Homer as the last man standing, which will be the same case this week, with Marshawn Lynch backing him up. With Homer as the primary back, the running attack will suffer as well as the pass protection. The game will fall 100% on Wilson’s shoulders, which sounds like a good thing, except for dealing with the Niner pass rush.

San Fran is top 5 in the league at rushing the passer, notching more than 3 sacks per game including 5 the first time they matched up with Seattle. Rookie Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead have combined for 19 sacks, and will be all over Wilson on Sunday. The 49ers have given up over 100 points in the last 3 games against the Falcons, Rams and Saints, but should have more success this week. Strong Safety Jaquiski Tartt has missed the last 3 games and Richard Sherman has also been in and out of the lineup during that time. Both expect to play in week 17. The 49er defense matches up very well with Seattle’s wounded offense, especially considering left tackle Duane Brown will also be out. SF will be able to stop the run and then get after Wilson. The defense was the strength of the team for the first half of the year, and must play at that level for SF to make a deep playoff run, and I think they get back to that level this week.

San Fran Is Winning the Tough Games

Shanahan’s squad has beat the Saints and Rams in 2 of the last 3 weeks in must win games. Granted they were surprised by the Falcons in between those games, but San Fran played their best when the chips were on the line. That is the case again this week. Shanahan will have a strong offensive gameplan ready for Seattle’s beat up defense. He will keep the chains moving with the running game and Garoppolo will have plenty of time to throw when called upon. It used to be that a big game in front of the 12th man at the Link was a lock for the Seahawks. This year has been a different story. Pete Carroll’s team is only 4-3 at home this year, and only 2-5 ATS including losing their last 2 home games outright. With all the injuries, they won’t be able to rebound this week.

Lay the Points With San Francisco

The 49ers clinch the number 1 seed in the NFC with a win in Seattle. The play to close out the 2019 season is to lay the points and count on the 49ers to win and cover the 3½ point spread. Bet your Seahawks/Niners pick FREE by taking advantage of a huge 50% REAL CASH bonus offer at Betnow! Deposit $200 and get $100 FREE!