Week 12 Pick: Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

Washington Commanders (4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS)

NFL Football Week 12

Date/Time: Thursday November 23rd, 2023. 4:05PM (EST)

Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: WAS +10.5/DAL -10.5

Moneyline: Wash +340/Dall -435

Total: 45.5

Betting big NFL favorites is a sure way to lose your bankroll. Eliminate this problem by signing up at Wagwerweb Sportsbook, who offers HUGE 20 point football teasers!

This Thursday, on Thanksgiving Day, the Dallas Cowboys will extend their long Turkey Day tradition by hosting the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys entered the Thanksgiving Day spotlight for the first time back in 1966 in an orchestrated move by former general manager Tex Schramm to gain more publicity. Since 1966, the Cowboys have appeared on Thanksgiving every year, with the exception of the 1975 and 1977 seasons, and have become one of the most common Thanksgiving themes every year.

For this Thursday’s showdown with the Commanders, the Cowboys will enter the contest as relatively large 10.5 point favorites. It is the 3rd time in the last three games that the Cowboys have been double-digit favorites. In the prior two games, the Cowboys obliterated the Giants 49-17 and then took down the Carolina Panthers with ease last week in a 33-10 victory. Needless to say, the Cowboys will be looking for a 3rd straight win and a 3rd straight cover this Thursday against a Washington team that was just upset by the New York Giants in week 11. Despite being near double-digit favorites, the Commanders were dismantled by former 3rd string and now starting QB Tommy DeVito, and the Commanders’ offense turned the ball six times in what can only be described as their worst performance of the season!

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

If you have read any of my previews this year surrounding the Commanders, I have been critical of Head Coach Ron Rivera quite often. In my opinion, the Commanders are still struggling with the same problems that they were when Rivera took over the organization back in 2020. The quarterback issues have plagued the Commanders for years, and despite QB Sam Howell showing some positive signs, last Sunday’s performance against the Giants was a significant reminder that this offense is still wildly inconsistent. Against one of the worst teams in the league, Howell could not get anything going and continuously forced the ball into coverage.

Meanwhile, the Commanders will face one of the most terrifying defenses in the league in Dallas this Thursday. The Cowboys have been dominant throughout the season toward getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, racking up sacks, forcing turnovers, and even turning those into defensive touchdowns. In last Sunday’s win against the Panthers, the Cowboys’ defense forced seven sacks and recorded a pick-six for the 2nd straight week. The elite pass rush has been the reason the Cowboys have been big favorites for the last several games against inferior offensive fronts and subpar quarterbacks. Needless to say, I don’t see anything too different with this match-up against the Commanders offensive front that would lead me to believe the Cowboys defense will not continuously get home again!

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends

• The Commanders are 1-4 SU in the last 5 games.
• The Commanders are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games.
• The Commanders are 4-10 SU in the last 14 games against Dallas.
• The Commanders have hit the “over” in 7 of the last 8 games on the road at Dallas.
• The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games.
• The Cowboys are 4-1 SU in the last 5 games.
• The Cowboys have hit the “over” in 6 of the last 9 games.
• The Cowboys are 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games against Washington.

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Prediction

Despite the terrific play by the Cowboys defense in recent weeks, QB Dak Prescott and this Dallas passing attack has been very strong. The Commanders currently have the 3rd worst passing defense in the league allowing 258 yards per game. As a result, I think Dallas has big match-up advantages on both sides of the ball. Once again, I will be laying the points with America’s Team.

Jay’s Pick: Take Dallas -10.5