Florida Gators vs Texas A&M Aggies Week 10 Best Bet

by | Nov 1, 2022 | cfb

Florida Gators (4-4 SU, ATS 4-4) vs Texas A&M Aggies (3-5 SU, ATS 3-3-1)

Date: Saturday, November 5th

Location: Kyle Field, College Station, TX

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: Gators +3/Aggies -3 (BAS – Did you know you can bet on games at -105 odds instead of -110? Imagine how much money you’d save!)

Money Line: Gators +126/Aggies -154

Over/Under: 54.5

RECENT FORM

When playing against SEC opponents, the Gators have posted a record of just 1-4. Their overall
record currently sits at 4-4. This season, the Gators have been favored in 5 games while posting
an ATS mark of 4-4-0. Their average over-under betting line is 57.25 leading to an over-under
record of 5-3.

In their last matchup, the Gators entered as 23.0 point underdogs to Georgia. With the 42-20
loss, Florida added an ATS loss. The team finished the game by throwing for 1 touchdown pass.
Overall, the Gators had 271 passing yards on a completion percentage of 48.6%. On the ground, the
team ended with 1 rushing touchdown while averaging 2.9 yards per carry for a total of 100
yards.

So far, quarterback Anthony Richardson has a passer rating of 78.13 while completing 114 of
his 207 attempts. Currently, he has a total of 1638 passing yards. Wide receiver Justin Shorter
has come up with the most production for the team, with a total of 471 receiving yards. The top
option in the run game for the team is Montrell Johnson Jr., who has carried the ball 70 times
for a total of 449 yards.

Heading into this week’s game, the Aggies have a record of 1-4 in SEC play. Their overall
record currently sits at 3-5. This season, the Aggies have been favored in 4 games while posting
an ATS mark of 3-3-1. Their average over-under betting line is 42.94 leading to an over-under
record of 3-4-0.

Texas A&M will look to bounce back from a 31-28 road loss to Ole Miss. Texas A&M went
into the game as 3.0-point underdogs, resulting in an ATS push. In the win, Texas A&M
completed 63.6 of their 44 passes, 4 of which resulted in touchdowns. In the rushing game, the
Aggies did not find the endzone, finishing with a total of 142 yards on the ground.

Heading into the matchup, Haynes King has an overall passer rating of 73.71 on a total of 941
yards. Thus far, he has thrown for 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. But, leading up to the game,
he is listed as questionable on the injury report (Shoulder). Through the air, the team will be
looking for a big game from leading receiver, Evan Stewart. On the season, he has caught 38 for
478 yards. The Gators have turned to running back Devon Achane a total of 142 times for a total
of 765 rushing yards.

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BETTING TRENDS

In their last 10 contests, the Gators have a straight-up record of 5-5, while covering the
spread at a rate of 50.0%. The team’s average scoring differential was -0.8, as they averaged
28.1 points per game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 28.9 points. Their last 10
over-under record is 5-5-0.

In their last 5 games away from home, the Gators have a straight-up record of 0-5-0 while
going 2-3-0 vs the spread. The team averaged 27.0 points per game in this stretch.

In their last 10 contests, the Aggies have a straight-up record of 4-6-0 while covering the
spread at a rate of 40.0%. On offense, the team averaged 25.7 points per game while allowing
20.4. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 5-5-0.

In their last 5 games at home, the Aggies have a straight-up record of 3-2-0 while going 2-2-1
vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 22.6 points per game in these contests.

More Picks: Minnesota at Nebraska point spread analysis and pick 11/5/22

KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Gators will look to improve their offensive output, as
they are ranked just 64th in the NCAA in points scored.

Although the Gators have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season,
they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs a Texas A&M defense allowing
teams to complete passes at a rate of 62.81%.

This season, the run game has not been a big part of the Florida offense, as they are
averaging just 33.5 attempts per game. With their limited opportunites, they have an average of
199.0 yards per contest, good for 26th in the NCAA. This week, the Gators will be facing a Texas
A&M defense ranked 177th in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 225.17
yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Aggies will look to improve their offensive output, as
they are ranked just 104th in the NCAA in points scored.

Although the Aggies have turned to the passing attack at a below-average rate this season,
they have an opportunity to find success through the air vs a Florida defense allowing teams to
complete passes at a rate of 58.5%.

So far, the Texas A&M offense is averaging just 123.25 yards per game on the ground. This
production has come on an average of 28.62 rush attempts per game (126th). This week, the Aggies
will be facing a Florida defense that is ranked 158th in rush yards allowed per game. So far,
they are averaging 136.4 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.

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