Atlanta Hawks vs. Brooklyn Nets Predictions 11/3/21

by | Nov 3, 2021 | nba

Atlanta Hawks (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS ) vs. Brooklyn Nets (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS)

When: Wednesday November 03 2021, 07:30 PM (ET)

Where: Barclays Center: Brookyln, New York

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: ATL 5.5/ BRO -5.5 Opened at ( BRO -5 )

Total: 219.0 (Opened at 218.5 )

Money Line: Atlanta +172/Brooklyn -208

Power Rating: Nets -8

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Probable Starting Lineups

Hawks: PG Trae Young, SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, SF Deandre Hunger, PF John Collins, C Clint Capela

Home Team: PG James Harden, SG Joe Harris, SF Bruce Brown, PF Kevin Durant, C Blake Griffen

Key Injuries

Hawks
Nicolas Claxton: illness (QUESTIONABLE) Kyrie Irving: personal (OUT) Paul Millsap: personal (QUESTIONABLE)

Nets
Onyeka Okongwu: shoulder (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The Atlanta Hawks have been playing well of late, winning four of their past seven contests. However, when they play away from Atlanta, they have won just one out of four games.

These road struggles are represented by their plus-minus rating of -10.5 (away games). This is considerably lower than their overall rating of +1.6, all while playing the 20th toughest schedule.

So far, the Hawks have covered the spread in 42% of their games. Their plus-minus vs. the spread is -3.5.

Offensively, Trae Young leads the team in scoring at 22.86 points per game. 4th among his fellow point guards.

Cam Reddish has been knocking down 2.29 threes per game, best on the team. While Clint Capela is grabbing 10.71 rebounds per contest.

The Brooklyn Nets are on a mini win streak picking up two straight wins. Recently, the team has played slightly above .500, going 4-3. So far, they have played the 13th toughest schedule.

When playing at home, Nets have a positive plus-minus differential of 3.6 points per game. This is actually slightly below their overall number of 4.8 points.

Through 7 games, Brooklyn has covered the spread in 42% of their contests. Vs. the spread, they have a plus-minus of -5.5 points per game.

Offensively, the Nets have relied on the scoring of Kevin Durant, averaging 27.71 points per game. He has also been the team’s best rebounder at 8.86 boards per contest.

James Harden is contributing 2.86 three-pointers per game, good for the top mark on the roster

An Eye On Pace

The Atlanta Hawks are one of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams. When they face with opponents similar to the Nets, they win 61% of the time. On average, these games finish three possessions below expectation.

In the cases when Brooklyn plays teams trying to limit possessions, they win at a rate of 69%.

Will Defense Prevail?

The key matchup to watch is how each team’s defense will handle their opponent’s top-rated offense. Although neither team does a good job limiting scoring, the Nets win 65% of these games vs. 35% for the Hawks.

Atlanta is by no means a defensive juggernaut, but they are the superior unit in this contest. On average, good offenses to score 6 points above average against Atlanta, compared to 8 for Brooklyn.

Brooklyn Has Offensive Edge

The Nets have the biggest advantage in this game, playing against a Hawks defense rated among the NBA’s worst in defensive efficiency. When playing units that struggle to slow down their opponents, the Nets score 13 points above expectation. On average, they win these games by 7 points.

The Historicals

The Nets and Hawks met up for three games last season, with the Brooklyn taking the series 2-1. The cumulative score was 383-373, in favor of the Nets. Atlanta had the largest single-game margin of victory, winning game two 114-96.

How the Public is Betting the Hawks vs. Nets

65 % are betting the Nets against the spread.

74% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 219.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite.
  • Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
  • Hawks are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

In tonight’s game, I recommend taking Atlanta to cover the spread. Neither team will be interested in playing defense, opting to outscore their opponent as the path to victory.

Atlanta’s slow pace of play figures to impact a Nets offense that relies more on volume scoring than the Hawks.

Because my model doesn’t show a significant edge on an over-under bet, I will stick to my pick of the Hawks to cover.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

My favorite bet will be taking Trae Young to surpass his line of 25.5 points. Among NBA teams, allow opponent top scorers to surpass their over-under line 60% of the time. Young will relish the opportunity to compete vs. Durant and Harden. Note! Our Week 9 NFL football picks are coming out of the oven today!