Joe Jensen

Woo vs King shows a two-run ERA gap the -122 moneyline hasn’t fully absorbed. Jensen’s read is inside.

McGreevy’s control advantage meets a line that moved too far on yesterday’s offensive outburst against struggling Cardinals arms. Jensen has a side on this one.

The bullpen gap between these teams matters less than the starting pitching excellence — Gausman’s 26:2 strikeout ratio faces Misiorowski’s power arsenal. The moneyline at -126 prices Milwaukee closer than their +41 run differential edge suggests. Get our read is inside.

Guaranteed Rate Field won’t save Chicago’s .193 average from McClanahan’s changeup arsenal. Read on to get our capper’s take on the game and see where his money is landing.

Great American Ball Park amplifies the pitching mismatch rather than neutralizing it between these starters. Jensen’s read is inside.

Detmers’ 1.2765 WHIP becomes a liability against a patient Yankees lineup that builds innings. Jensen breaks it down inside.

Lopez’s 1.15 ERA towers over Meyer’s 3.68 mark, but the -163 moneyline has overcorrected. Jensen’s read is inside.

Gray vs Abel looks like a mismatch until you factor in strikeout rates and Boston’s contact struggles. The moneyline at -143 treats this closer than Abel’s swing-and-miss upside warrants against this Red Sox lineup. Jensen has a side on this one.

Mikolas’ 12.41 ERA against Keller’s perfection creates a stark pitching mismatch. The question is do you lay the big number or the handicap (runline)?

Chicago’s 3.43 team ERA meets a +123 price that hasn’t moved with the fundamental gap. Jensen has a side.