Quick Recap:
• Record: 4-6
• Units: -5.5
• Best Win: Under 8 (+2.0u)
• Tough Loss: Texas Rangers ML (-2.6u)
Joe Jensen’s May 25 card finished 4-6 with a net result of -5.5 units — a rough Monday driven less by volume and more by where the unit exposure landed. The four losses carried heavier risk than the four wins could offset, and two of those losses were lopsided blowouts that never gave the handicap a fighting chance. The unders that cashed were clean and efficient; the moneyline positions on the wrong side of dominant pitching performances were the ones that did the real damage.
Cubs at Pirates
Pick: Under 8 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
A clean opener for the card. The Cubs and Pirates combined for just three runs on a night when Pittsburgh’s pitching controlled the game from start to finish. Henry Davis provided the decisive blow — a go-ahead solo shot off Trent Thornton in the seventh — while Wilber Dotel tossed three scoreless innings in relief to preserve the win. Gregory Soto closed it out with a perfect ninth. Michael Busch accounted for Chicago’s lone run with a home run, but the Cubs’ offense was otherwise quiet, extending their losing streak to nine. Final: Pirates 2, Cubs 1. The under 8 was never in real danger. After backing the under 7.5 in Pittsburgh’s prior series win over Toronto, Jensen returned to the well here and got a similar result.
Twins at Sox
Pick: Minnesota Twins ML | Result: Lost (-2.20u)
Minnesota came in riding a four-game win streak, but Anthony Kay had other plans. Kay delivered six sharp innings for Chicago, and the White Sox got the long ball from both Munetaka Murakami and Drew Romo to build a 3-1 lead that held. Brooks Lee homered for the Twins, but Minnesota’s offense never generated enough to overcome Kay’s performance. The White Sox have now won seven straight against Minnesota — their longest such streak since 1995. Risking 2.20u on the favorite here was reasonable given the Twins’ recent form, but Kay’s dominance made this a competitive loss rather than a missed read. The prior under 7.5 in this series had already gone the wrong way, and the moneyline didn’t recover it.
Cardinals at Brewers
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Jacob Misiorowski was the story here, and the under was the beneficiary. The Milwaukee right-hander matched a career high with 12 strikeouts, carried a no-hitter into the sixth, and threw a remarkable 57 pitches of at least 100 mph — the most in a single game since pitch tracking began in 2008. Christian Yelich added a two-run homer and Andrew Vaughn went 3-for-4, but the total stayed well within range. Final: Brewers 5, Cardinals 1. The Cardinals managed just one run, and the game was never going to run up the score with Misiorowski dealing like that. Jensen had cashed an under 8.5 in Milwaukee’s prior game against the Dodgers, and this one was even cleaner.
Yankees at Royals
Pick: Under 9 | Result: Won (+2.00u)
A tense, low-scoring game that nearly went sideways in the eighth. Will Warren pitched well for New York, and the game sat at 2-1 Yankees heading into the late innings before Bobby Witt Jr. hit a go-ahead homer off Jake Bird in the eighth to put Kansas City ahead 3-2. Anthony Volpe then delivered a two-run single in the ninth off Lucas Erceg to flip it back, giving the Yankees a 4-3 final. Seven total runs cleared the under 9 comfortably. The drama was real, but the total was never threatened. A clean win for the card at -108.
Reds at Mets
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost (-2.30u)
The Mets entered this one already dealing with injuries and illness — Juan Soto missed his second straight game, and Tyrone Taylor left with hip pain in the sixth. Nolan McLean was ineffective on the mound, and Cincinnati took full advantage. JJ Bleday and Tyler Stephenson homered, Spencer Steer drove in three, and the Reds put up four runs in the fourth inning alone to effectively end the game early. Final: Reds 7, Mets 2. Nine total runs blew past the 7.5 with the Mets’ rotation and lineup both compromised. This one had the feel of a missed read in hindsight — the Mets’ injury situation was a real headwind for the under, and Cincinnati’s offense had momentum coming in. Risking 2.30u made this the most expensive loss of the card.
Diamondbacks at Giants
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks ML | Result: Won (+2.00u)
Merrill Kelly was outstanding, pitching seven strong innings while allowing just two runs on four hits. He struck out four, walked two, and became the fourth pitcher in Arizona history to reach 1,000 career innings. Ketel Marte was the offensive engine — going 4-for-5 with a tying double in the fifth, a two-run single in the sixth, and three RBI total. Gabriel Moreno also homered. Final: Diamondbacks 6, Giants 2. Arizona’s surge was decisive and Kelly’s length made the bullpen a non-issue. At +120, this was the most efficient win on the card — risking only 1.67u to net 2.00u. A well-placed underdog play that delivered cleanly.
Nationals at Guardians
Pick: Under 8.5 | Result: Lost (-2.44u)
The most damaging loss of the night. Washington came out swinging — literally — with James Wood leading off the game with a 412-foot homer on the sixth pitch. The Nationals put up three in the first, three more in the second, and never looked back. Curtis Mead hit two home runs, Luis García Jr. finished a triple shy of the cycle with four RBI, and Washington matched their season-high with six home runs in a 10-2 rout. Final: Nationals 10, Guardians 2. Twelve total runs obliterated the 8.5. This was a blowout from the jump — the Nationals were locked in offensively and Cleveland had no answer. Risking 2.44u on a total that got crushed in the first two innings is the kind of result that defines a losing card. Jensen had backed Cleveland’s ML in their prior game, so the familiarity with the matchup didn’t help here.
Phillies at Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres ML | Result: Lost (-1.82u)
Jesús Luzardo and Kyle Schwarber made this one look easy for Philadelphia. Schwarber hit his major league-leading 21st home run of the season, and Brandon Marsh added a two-run shot in the seventh. Luzardo was sharp enough to keep San Diego off the board, and the Padres managed nothing offensively — Manny Machado went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts, and the lineup generated no real threat. Final: Phillies 3, Padres 0. The Padres were shut out at home, and the +110 moneyline play never had a pulse. A competitive framing at the time, but Luzardo’s performance and San Diego’s offensive no-show made this a straightforward loss.
Astros at Rangers
Pick: Texas Rangers ML | Result: Lost (-2.60u)
The worst result of the night, and it wasn’t close. Tatsuya Imai combined with Steven Okert and Alimber Santa on the 17th no-hitter in Houston Astros history — a 9-0 demolition of the Rangers in Arlington. Imai walked three of the first four batters he faced but then locked in completely, and the Astros’ offense backed him with Christian Walker and Yordan Alvarez homering. Texas went hitless on the night. Final: Astros 9, Rangers 0. Risking 2.60u on the Rangers at -130 and watching them get no-hit is the definition of a result you can’t plan for. The handicap wasn’t necessarily wrong — backing a home favorite at that price is a standard play — but the execution was historically bad on Texas’s side. The most expensive single loss on the card.
Marlins at Jays
Pick: Under 7.5 | Result: Lost (-2.16u)
Miami came in riding a four-game winning streak and kept it rolling. Janson Junk pitched five innings, allowing just one run, but the Marlins’ offense did the damage — Kyle Stowers and Javier Sanoja each had two doubles and two RBI, Owen Caissie drove in a pair, and Miami put up three in the sixth and three more in the eighth to pull away. Final: Marlins 8, Blue Jays 2. Ten total runs cleared the 7.5 with room to spare. Jensen had cashed an under 7.5 in Toronto’s prior game against Pittsburgh, but this Marlins lineup was in a different gear. The late-inning scoring surges in the sixth and eighth made this a tough under to hold.
Beer Money & Parlay Plays
Side plays went 1-0 on the day — these are lean, low-conviction recommendations with no units assigned and no impact on the official record or unit total.
Rays at Orioles
The over 7.5 (-122) was the lean here, and it cashed with room to spare. Tampa Bay and Baltimore combined for 16 runs in a 9-7 Orioles win, clearing the total comfortably. A solid lean for anyone who sprinkled it into a parlay.
Monday’s card was defined by exposure in the wrong places. The three most costly losses — Nationals/Guardians (-2.44u), Astros/Rangers (-2.60u), and Reds/Mets (-2.30u) — combined for -7.34u in damage, and two of those were blowouts that were effectively over early. The four wins were clean and efficient, but they were capped at +2.00u each, which wasn’t enough to absorb the downside. The Rangers no-hitter and the Nationals’ six-homer barrage were outlier performances that overwhelmed reasonable handicaps. The Reds/Mets under, however, had more warning signs — a compromised Mets lineup and a Cincinnati offense with momentum. The unders in Pittsburgh and Milwaukee were the card’s best reads, and the Diamondbacks ML at plus money was the most efficient allocation of the night.
Missed Reads: Reds at Mets (Under 7.5), Marlins at Jays (Under 7.5)
Variance / Competitive Losses: Twins at Sox (Twins ML), Phillies at Padres (Padres ML), Astros at Rangers (Rangers ML — no-hit result)
Clean Wins: Cubs at Pirates (Under 8), Cardinals at Brewers (Under 7.5), Yankees at Royals (Under 9), Diamondbacks at Giants (Arizona ML)
