2010-2011 NFL Super Bowl Predictions
by Badger of Predictem.com
Teams from all over National Football League will be starting training camp soon, which means the joy of betting on regular season football games is only a month away. Once again the NFL will stage a huge game for it’s Thursday night opener, featuring a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game when the Minnesota Vikings travel down to the Big Easy to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints in the Superdome on September 9th.
This year Super Bowl 45 (XLV) (Super Bowl 45 Betting Odds) will be played at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on Sunday, February 6th. Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones outbid Indianapolis and Glendale, Arizona, for the rights to host the big game, the third time the Super Bowl will be played in Texas with both of the previous ones taking place in Houston and favoring the AFC representative (Super Bowl VIII at Rice Stadium (Miami over Minnesota) and Super Bowl XXXVIII at Reliant Stadium (New England over Carolina).
Here are my preseason predictions for division champs, wildcard winners and eventual playoff winners, complete with the Divisional futures odds. I will also offer up a short, middle and long shot winner using the current NFC/AFC Championship futures odds and Super Bowl futures odds listed at BetUS and Sportsbook (which ever is better).
NFC East – Washington Redskins (prediction: 10-6)
Odds to win NFC East – +550 at Sportsbook.com
There’s nothing like going out on a limb right away, but I’m leaning toward the Redskins stunning everyone in the East. With a veteran quarterback in Donavan McNabb and new running backs Larry Johnson and Willie Parker joining Clinton Portis, it’s no secret new coach Mike Shanahan plans to run the ball just like in his Broncos days. The Skins have the easier schedule compared to the heavy chalk Cowboys in the East (Dallas is +125) and have so much more value, plus I can’t take all of the favorites.
NFC North – Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Odds to win NFC North – +125 at BetUS.com
The NFC North Division boils down to one proposition: Brett Favre (maybe) versus Aaron Rodgers? I’ll take the younger and still improving Rodgers over the maybe, especially since the Vikings are virtually the same price (+130 at BetUS.com), and the Packers were the youngest team in the NFL the past few seasons and they all had a taste of the playoffs last year and could be poised for a deep playoff run in 2011.
NFC South – New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Odds to win NFC South – -150 at BetUS.com
What hasn’t Drew Brees done since his Super Bowl MVP? Man that guy has pimped himself everywhere this offseason, which is why the Saints will give back a few games this season. But with an offense that can put up 50 in a blink on just about anyone, the Saints won’t fall too far as defending champs.
NFC West – San Francisco 49ers (11-5)
Odds to win NFC West – -110 at BetUS.com
With all of the personnel changes at the reigning NFC West power Arizona, you can count me in among the droves moving to the 49ers this season. I’m still not sold on quarterback Alex Smith, but I am sold on Mike Singletary and his approach in the Bay. Drafting two- fifths of an offensive line (Anthony Davis and Mike Lupati) translates to me that Iron Mike is going bring a little smash-mouth to the West Coast.
NFC Wildcards – Atlanta Falcons (10-6) and Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
The Falcons did a solid job of addressing their defensive needs by picking up CB Dunta Robinson in free agency and adding three potential major contributors in the draft (LB Sean Weatherspoon, DT Corey Peters and CB Dominique Franks), so a game improvement to 10-6 gets them in the playoffs of 2011.
For me the Cowboys have a tough schedule (like the Vikings), too tough for much more than 10 wins anyway with what I consider a lack of depth on defense, especially in the secondary to survive throw- happy Andy Reid and Philly twice in the final four weeks.
AFC East – New England Patriots (11-5)
Odds to win AFC East – +130 at BetUS.com
Most people will tell you it takes two years after knee surgery to get back to 100 percent. Tom Brady will be better and the Pats will still have enough to hold off the upstart Jets for one more year. Although if you like the Jets, you get nearly the same price (+140), but in a Brady-vs.-Mark Sanchez division I’ll side with the former MVP.
AFC North – Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Odds of win AFC North – +240 at Sportsbook.com
Sure, sure … I know Ben Roethlisberger is suspended for four to six games, but the Steelers will still win 10 games and edge the Ravens in the NFC North. Plus, the Ravens are the chalk pick right now (-115), so the Steelers offer better value too. I’ll take a motivated Big Ben in a “Me versus the world” type of effort to beat the Ravens and the circus show in Cincinnati.
AFC South – Indianapolis Colts (13-3)
Odds to win AFC South – -150
Seriously, I know it's real insight here, but Peyton Manning finished one game away from his intended goal last season. My money is on him and his motivation to get back there again. Looking at their schedule it’s hard to see them doing any worse than 13 wins in my book.
AFC West – San Diego Chargers (13-3)
Odds to win AFC West – -300 at Sportsbook.com
I could tell you to put your wager on the +750 Oakland Raiders now that they have a real NFL quarterback to go with their other talent, or put it on the +600 Denver Tebow’s, er, Broncos to pull off some miracles, but I’d only be telling you to flush your money away. San Diego gets 13 wins by virtue of the weak AFC West, but whether or not you eat the heavy odds is your choice.
AFC Wildcards – Baltimore Ravens (10-6) and New York Jets (10-6)
The Ravens could flip spots with the Steelers as I mentioned above, but their defense might struggle if their top two draft picks LB Sergio Kindle (head injury) and DT Terrence Cody (too fat, didn’t pass conditioning test) don’t bring new blood to an aging unit.
The Jets will go as far as Sanchez can take them, but you can expect a similar KISS (keep it simple stupid) approach on offense so he can just manage the game and not feel like he has to win it every week. The defense could be even studlier if rookie corner Kyle Wilson can balance the field and bring Derrelle Revis back into play.
Conference Championships (January 23rd)
Instead of continuing to throw predictions out based on my Divisional selections above for the Wild Card Weekend (January 8th/9th) and Divisional Round (January 15th/16th), let’s instead skip ahead and predict a short-middle-long pick for the Conference Championships.
NFC
Short Favorite – Dallas Cowboys – 5.5-to-1 at BetUS.com
If the Cowboys can get past a potential cold-weather game in the early rounds, they could run the table as a wildcard to represent the NFC in their own stadium for the Super Bowl.
Middle of the Road – Atlanta Falcons – 10-to-1 at BetUS.com
As a true middle pick I’m not sure if the Falcons defense is up to the task to reach the big game, since they will be relying on a few rookies to fill big roles. But at 10-to-1 I’ll take a chance that they can pull a shocker.
Longshot – Washington Redskins – 20-to-1 at Sportsbook.com
The Skins are practically the only non-favorite I picked above, so why not take them as my long shot.
AFC
Short – Indianapolis Colts – 4-to-1 at BetUS.com
Personally I’m not a big fan of Manning, but I’m not dumb enough to not expect him to reach the AFC title game again because of unfinished business.
Middle of the Road – Pittsburgh Steelers – 9-to-1 at Sportsbook.com
See my above comments above Big Ben proving something to the world, and with solid 9-to-1 value and a defense that is still championship caliber they are a great middle pick for the AFC title.
Longshot – Cincinnati Bengals – 25-to-1at Sportsbook.com
So Terrelle Owens and Chad Ochocinco will be in the same huddle, really? I personally think the Bengals offense implodes with these two together (I don’t even have them making the playoffs), but I’ll wager a small longshot bet at 25-to-1 that I’m wrong and the Bengals somehow make it work.
Super Bowl 45 – February 6th, Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Using the current 2011 Super Bowl Futures Odds at BetUS.com, here’s where I’ll be placing my short, middle and long shot bets for this season.
Short Favorite – Indianapolis Colts – 8-to-1 at BetUS.com
Do I have to say more?
Middle of the Road – San Diego Chargers – 10-to-1 at Sportsbook.com
The Chargers have slipped through the radar so far if you’ve read this entire piece, but they were awfully close last season and there’s no reason why they couldn’t catch a few breaks and get there this season. Plus, the two previous Super Bowls in Texas have gone the AFC’s way, so maybe it’s finally San Diego and Philip Rivers year.
Longshot – Green Bay Packers – 14-to-1 at BetUS
Just like the Chargers above, I didn’t list the Packers in my NFC Championship picks above because their odds were lousy. At 14-to-1 they slot in perfectly as a middle pick that truly has a legit shot at cashing it in when it’s all over.
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