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10 NFL Player Prop Bets

by | Aug 13, 2018 | nfl

With the NFL season just a month away and fantasy football drafts starting to begin, below you will find ten NFL player prop bets and picks for whether or not they will hit their projected statistical over/under totals for the upcoming year. Odds provided and available on 5dimes.

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Tom Brady – Over/Under 4674.5 Passing Yards

This number seems too high even for Brady. The Patriots (season wins pick) wide receiving group is in bit of disarray with Danny Amendola off to the Dolphins and Julien Edelman suspended for the first four games. They were hoping for a breath of fresh air with second year wide out Malcolm Mitchell and the signing of free agent Jordan Matthews, but unfortunately both ended up being too fragile and were subsequently released during training camp. Instead Brady will need to develop a quick rapport with newcomers Eric Decker and Kenny Britt, who will be relied upon to quickly learn a complex system to offset the losses at the position around them. New England also seems more intent on running the ball this year with offseason additions Those new players include the drafting of Sony Michel in the first round along with signing Jeremy Hill to go with an already talented backfield consisting of James White, Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead. Brady has thrown for over 4600 yards just once in the past five seasons. That was back in 2015 when he threw for 4,770 yards. With surprising question marks on the offense, including at the ever important left tackle position, I think the wisest investment is to go with the under on his season total passing yardage line. Pick: UNDER

Marcus Mariota – Over/Under 3450.5 Passing Yards

Mariota’s projections appear to be an overreaction to last year’s difficulty when he struggled throughout and ended with a career worst 13-15 TD/INT ratio. Mariota had 3,232 yards passing last season after throwing for 3,426 in 2016. The Titans and their passing game seem ready to rebound with Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker both returning along with high hopes for second year wideout Corey Davis. The 5th overall pick in the 2017 draft and all-time NCAA leader in receiving yards was hobbled to begin last season and never quite found his footing as the year progressed, but after a great training camp Davis is being highly lauded as prime fantasy football sleeper with an incredibly high ceiling. The team also signed running back Dion Lewis in the offseason, an outstanding pass catcher out of the backfield that should immediately pay dividends for Mariota and the Titans offense. With a new coaching staff intent on more aggressive play calling, the Titans offense along with Mariota are in prime position to rebound from last year’s disappointment and as such the Tennessee quarterback provides some quality value in terms of preseason predictions. PICK: OVER

Alex Smith – Over/Under 4149.5 passing yards

This number seems over inflated based upon Smith’s career year last season when he threw for 4,042 yards. His previous high was 3,502 yards, and this year he will have a lot worse supporting cast surrounding him. He loses the lighting fast Tyreek Hill, the pass catching abilities of Kareem Hunt and the second best tight end in the league in Travis Kelce. Instead he inherits a lackluster wide receiving group of Josh Doctson, Jamison Crowder and Paul Richardson, and keep in mind that even with Kirk Cousins at the helm the Redskins were just 24th in the league last year in passing yards per game. I cannot imagine Smith is able to get over the high projected passing yard hump and is instead a much better wager to come up short. PICK: UNDER

 

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Drew Brees – Over/Under 26.5 passing touchdowns

The touchdown line for Brees appears to me as an overreaction to last year when he threw for ‘only’ 23 touchdowns. Especially when you consider that in his previous nine years in the league he had at least 32 in each and finished with an average of 36 per season. The Saints added free agent Cam Meredith to go alongside star Michael Thomas and the speedy Ted Ginn at the wide receiver spot. They also have emerging phenom Alvin Kamara back for his second year in the league at running back after leading all at his position last season in both catches and receiving yards. The Saints did lean more on their running game a season ago, but with Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games of the year, it will put even further emphasis on Brees and the passing game to lead the way for the offense. Don’t let one down year affect your thoughts on Brees, who is a strong candidate for a bounce back season and a great value to hit his over in touchdowns. PICK: OVER

Joe Flacco – Over/Under 15 interceptions

This line seemed a bit high to me, especially considering Joe Flacco has thrown for more than 15 interceptions in a season just once in the past decade. That was back in 2013. The Ravens (get the Bills in week 1) offseason was spent upgrading the weapons around Flacco, signing receivers Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead while also picking two tight ends in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. All those additions should make Flacco’s job that much easier. One further variable that could affect the wager was the Ravens drafting of quarterback Lamar Jackson and signing of RGIII, both of whom could theoretically push Flacco for playing time if the aging veteran struggles, which would mean even less chances of adding to his interception total. Taking the under is the only way to go. Pick: UNDER

Larry Fitzgerald – Over/Under 850.5 receiving yards

The ageless Fitzgerald will be entering his 15th season in the NFL and has been a model of consistency throughout his pro career, having started at least thirteen games in every year thus far. He has been especially productive over the past three seasons, with at least 1,000 yards and 100 receptions in each while also averaging 1130 per. The change in quarterback from Carson Palmer to Sam Bradford shouldn’t be that much of a disruption considering LFitz has dealt with change plenty of times before as he will now be playing with his 15th starting quarterback since beginning in the league. The Cardinals are lacking in other receiving options with just JJ Nelson and rookie Christian Kirk around him along with weakness at the tight end position, so Fitzgerald should continue to be the clear focal point of the position and have little issue meeting his typical statistics. PICK: OVER

TY Hilton – Over/Under 1050.5 receiving yards

The over/under for Hilton seems to be an overreaction to last year’s total when he posted ‘only’ 906 yards with trusted quarterback Andrew Luck out for season due to injury. With Luck in the lineup Hilton had put up at least 1,080 yards in all of the previous four seasons with an average of 1,250 in each. He has already re-established his connection with Luck in training camp and will likely be the focal point of the Colts offense with their remaining underwhelming group of starting receivers rounded out by Ryan Grant and Chester Rodgers, both of which are inexperienced and have never played with Luck previously. PICK: OVER

Marshawn Lynch – Over/Under 650.5 rushing yards

After sitting out the 2016 season, Marshawn Lynch is back again for the Oakland Raiders. He ended up posting 891 rushing yards last year but seemed to especially find his stride in the second half of the season when he averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Lynch ran for 434 yards in his final five games and will hope to continue that rejuvenation this season (Raiders host Rams week 1), and if training camp is any indication he is well on his way after showing up slimmer than he has been in years. New head coach Jon Gruden is expected to have a more physical game plan for the Oakland offense and with Beast Mode set as the focal back, he should have little problem clearing his expected over/under in yards. PICK: OVER

Jarvis Landry – Over/Under 949.5 receiving yards

There is no questioning Landry’s talent level, this is more about the various limitations he will face in attempting to reach the 950 yard receiving barrier as a member of the Cleveland Browns. There is plenty of other wide receiver talent on the team, with josh Gordon back and Dez Bryant heavily rumored to be joining the team via free agency. Expected starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor is a quality player, but he has only had one wide receiver under him gain over 620 yards in a season in his last three years in the league. Then there is the issue of Landry’s head coach, Hue Jackson, who is not only owns a 1-31 record thus far in his career but has also shown with every passing second on HBO’s Hard Knocks just how terrible of a leader he really is in all facets of the game. As much blooming talent as that team has, they were always been held back from real success until the Browns finally rid themselves of the sideline and locker room poison that is Hue Jackson. Pick: UNDER

David Johnson – Over/Under 925.5 rushing yards

After breaking onto the scene at the end of 2015 and blowing up for 1,239 rushing yards in 2016, high hopes were had for David Johnson entering last season. Unfortunately a wrist injury derailed Johnson’s year and he will be looking to bounce back for the 2018 season. DJ benefits from his position as one of the only bell cow backs in the league and he will continue to be the clear focal point of the Arizona Cardinals backfield. With that rare position I can definitely foresee a strong return for Johnson who should have little issue getting past his minimal over/under in rushing yards. PICK: OVER

Best Sportsbooks for Parlays

2 Team Parlay 3 Team Parlay 4 Team Parlay
2.74 to 1 6.24 to 1 13 to 1
2.64 to 1 6 to 1 12.3 to 1
2.64 to 1 6 to 1 12 to 1
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