2023 NFC North Season Win Bets: Lines & Picks
Detroit Lions: Over 9.5 Wins -120
Dan Campbell transformed the Lions into a respectable unit last year, finishing the campaign with nine wins, including a week 18 victory against the division rival Packers to keep the Cheese-heads out of the playoffs. The Lions won eight of their last ten contests, including going 5-0 against NFC North opponents over that stretch. Generally, when a team ends that hot, the expectation is they will maintain the momentum in the following season. However, many pundits expect the Lions to fold under the pressure of being the lead dog this year, and of course, the Lions organization has a long history of folding when the chips are down. But I believe the team is built to continue on the trajectory they had at the close of 2022’s slate. Campbell’s offense revolves around a top-5 Offensive Line opening holes and giving time to highly skilled playmakers. Jared Goff has rehabilitated his career and proven very capable of distributing the ball to Aman-Ra St. Brown, rookies Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, and speedster Jameson Williams when he joins the team after his 6-game suspension. The defense will have holes, but they improved during last year’s winning streak and should continue to improve in 2023. This team should be able to get to 10 wins against a softer schedule and this division and cash an Over ticket.
Minnesota Vikings: Under 8.5 Wins -105
The Vikings are a very difficult team to forecast this year, so I’m leaning under on them. They won 13 games last year, but everyone thought they were paper champions since 11 of those 13 wins came by less than 8 points, and everyone was proven right when the lowly Giants came to the Twin Cities and took down the Vikings in the first round of the playoffs. Kirk Cousins is back for what is expected to be his last dance in Minnesota and should be able to put a lot of points on the board, throwing to the NFL’s best receiver Justin Jefferson, top 5 tight ends T.J. Hockenson, and first-round pick Jordan Addison. The Vikings parted ways with perennial Pro-Bowler Dalvin Cook, but Alexander Mattison should make a seamless transition to being the top back. The Viking defense wasn’t very good last year and won’t be much better this year. They did sign Edge Rusher Daneille Hunter, so at least they have their best pass rusher back, but they were 28th in points allowed and 29th in yards per play against last year. I think this is the year the Vikings fall apart and may be tanking when the calendar changes to December. We will want to be over the game totals all year on this team, but the win total is an Under. I do like BOVADA. LV’s offering of Alexander Mattison Rushing Touchdowns over 6½. He had five last year, and Cook had 8. I think the Vikes trust Mattison, they are going to score a lot of touchdowns, and Mattison can easily get seven or more.
Chicago Bears: Under 7.5 Wins +105
What do we think of Justin Fields, or more specifically, what do we think of Justin Fields’ ability to throw? Last year Fields managed just 2242 passing yards in 15 games; those are bad numbers for 2023’s high school quarterbacks. There are a lot of excuses for him – bad line, bad receivers, weather – but at the end of the day, it was only good enough to win three games. Chicago did bring in D.J. Moore from Carolina, prompting some comparisons to Stephon Diggs going to the Bills or A.J. Brown going to the Eagles, but I’m not buying it. Fields is too slow to work through his reads, takes too many sacks, and Moore isn’t as good as the other two receivers. If Fields is the same QB in 2023 that he was in 2022, why would we expect the Bears to win four games more than they did last year? There is also talk that Fields played better as the season went on, but Chicago lost their last ten games and lost by 20 or more in four of their last six games. They had a big budget and weren’t shy about spending in free agency, and they made some improvements on the fringe, but not enough to get to 8 wins. Of course, my favorite bet in this division is Justin Fields under 2850 passing yards at -105. I kind of like Fields over 10½ interceptions (he had 11 last year), but there is always a chance he misses games hurt and doesn’t get there.
Green Bay Packers: Under 7.5 Wins -105
What will the Packers look like without Rodgers? Jordan Love has yet to have much of a chance when the games count, but he hasn’t looked very good in that limited work or the pre-season. On top of Love, we really don’t know how good of a coach Matt LaFleur is without a Hall of Fame QB. LeFleur wasn’t able to elevate his team while Rodgers was meandering through last season, and his defenses have a lot of talent but can’t seem to stop anybody. Green Bay will undoubtedly try to move the ball on the ground with their elite running back tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, but at some point, Love will have to deliver some wins. They added two tight ends and a receiver early in the draft to go with last year’s rookies, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but none of these guys will really scare defenses with Love behind center. Green Bay is a high-variance team this year, they could repeat Seattle’s success last year after trading their franchise QB, but I think it is more likely they will make the same mistakes they have the past few years, but this time the QB has no chance of saving them. They only won eight games last year, so I like their chances to max out at seven.
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