Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Pick ATS

by | Oct 14, 2021 | nfl

Miami Dolphins (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5, 1-4), 10/17/21

When: 9:30 am ET Sunday, Oct. 17

Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

TV: CBS

Point Spread: Mia -3.5/Jax +3.5 (Bovada - Credit cards work there! They’ll give you a 50% bonus up to $250 FREE! Rebates on ALL your bets; win or lose! Fast payouts! AWESOME live betting! A must have in your sports betting arsenal!)

Total: 47

With full apologies to the American football fans of Great Britain, the NFL sends two of its worst teams your way when the 1-4 Dolphins and 0-5 Jaguars meet Sunday in London. Miami was supposed to contend for an AFC playoff spot this season; that is not happening. Jackson-ville, meanwhile, was just looking to stop a 15-game losing skid coming into this season; that hasn’t happened yet. So these two teams are a combined 1-9 on the season.

It can be challenging to find betting value in a game like this, but we found a lean we like. Here’s our homework for this contest and our free NFL betting pick.

NFL Betting Lines

The Week 6 NFL betting odds opened Miami as a three-point favorite over J-Ville, with an over/under of right around 43. Early betting action then edged the Dolphins to -3.5 and goosed that total to 47.

Any bettors out there thinking the Jags might win this game outright - you crazy few - could get a price of upwards of +170 on the NFL betting money line.

Dolphins Betting Preview

A season after going a promising 10-6, Miami is 1-4, after losing at Tampa Bay last week 45-17. However, that game was a bit closer than that final score might indicate. The Dolphins led 10-7 after one quarter but trailed 24-10 at the half. Miami then got within 24-17 midway through the third but gave up the last 21 points of the game to lose and whiff ATS as an 11-point underdog.

The Dolphins got out-gained by the Buccaneers 558-301, but that’s also a bit misleading, consid-ering that margin was only 300-267 through three quarters. Miami just got dominated in the fourth quarter.

The Dolphins opened this season with a win at New England but are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS since, with a bad loss to Buffalo, an overtime loss to Las Vegas, and a 10-point loss to Indianapolis. At 1-4 overall, Miami is already in big trouble, as far as making the playoffs is concerned.

The Dolphins QB situation is a mess at the moment; starter Tua Tagovailoa got knocked out of Game 2 against Buffalo and has missed the last three games. He was replaced by Jacoby Brissett, who’s proven ineffective, and then he got hurt last week. It looked like Miami was down to its No. 3 guy, second-year pro Reid Sinnett, until Brissett returned in the game. Now Brissett is listed as questionable for this week, but Tagovailoa might come back. As of this writing, we’re not sure who’s going to start behind center for the Dolphins Sunday.

Jaguars Betting Preview

Jacksonville, meanwhile, is 0-5 on the season, and 0 for its last 20, after losing at home to Ten-nessee last week 37-19. The Jaguars fumbled the ball away into a Titans touchdown one minute into the game, drove their next possession to a touchdown but missed the extra point. J-Ville trailed 24-13 at the half, then gave up the first seven points out of the locker room, on its way toward defeat. The Jags also came up short ATS as four-point dogs.

Jacksonville actually out-gained Tennessee 454-368 but lost the turnover battle 2-0.

Two weeks ago, the Jaguars led at Cincinnati 14-0 early and 21-14 late but lost 24-21 on a field goal at the buzzer. Three weeks ago, J-Ville led Arizona 19-10 in the third quarter but lost 31-19.

The Jags have also out-rushed each of their last three opponents.

At 0-5, Jacksonville is just looking to halt that 20-game losing skid, which is now the second-longest in the NFL history, and get Coach Meyer his first NFL win.

These two teams just met back in Week 3 of last season, a 31-13 Miami victory in J-Ville. Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterbacked the Dolphins that day against Gardner Minshew for the Jags.

Jacksonville was actually favored that day by 2.5 points and the game played under a total of 49.5.

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NFL Betting Trends

Favorites are 48-32 SU but only 35-45 ATS in the NFL this season.

Totals Report

Overs are 3-2 in Dolphins games this season, which are averaging 47 total points.

Unders are 3-2 in Jaguars games this season, which are averaging 49 points.

Unders are 43-37 in the NFL this season.

Free NFL Betting Pick

Jacksonville is out-rushing opponents this season by a per-game margin of 129-122; Miami is get-ting out-rushed 134-70. And teams that out-rush their opponents cover the spread about 65 per-cent of the time in the NFL. Also, the Dolphins are hurting at QB. So while it’s not easy betting on a team that’s lost 20 games in a row, we’re taking the Jags and the points here. Rough week/month? Instead of re-depositing at your sportsbook and receiving NOTHING, consider cashing in BIG with a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook! The absolute biggest bonus on the web from a legit sportsbook!

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