Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. Baltimore Ravens (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS)
When: November 18, 2018, 1:00 PM EST
Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
BY: Rick Wise
Point Spread: Ravens -3
Takeaways From Week 10
The Bengals were on the wrong end of a 51-14 drubbing against the New Orleans Saints Sunday, dropping them to 5-4 overall after losses in three of their last four outings.
Cincinnati was idle last week so they had extra time to prepare for the New Orleans Saints but it didn’t help a bit. The Bengals’ defense somehow made the Saints appear even more unstoppable than they’d already been looking. Drew Brees finished 22-of-25 for 265 yards and three touchdowns, while Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns from scrimmage. The unit conceded 509 total yards, 33 first downs and allowed the Saints to open up a 35-7 lead by half-time.
The Cincinnati offense wasn’t much better. Outside of a 75-yard scoring drive on their first possession of the game, they were shutout until mop-up duty in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter. Andy Dalton finished 12-of-20 for 143 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions for a 61.0 passer rating (his worst of the season) and the ground game never really materialized. Joe Mixon led all running backs with 11 carries for 61 yards.
Meanwhile, the Ravens had a bye this week but suffered a damaging 23-16 division loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers the last time they took the field.
In that game, the Ravens’ vaunted defense was exposed once again, allowing well over 300 yards of total offense for the third straight game. James Conner carried 24 times for 107 yards and Pittsburgh’s receiving corps also had their way with the Baltimore secondary, as seven different receivers totaled 29 receptions for 292 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Baltimore was just as deficient on the offensive side with just 265 total yards of offense, 204 passing and 81 rushing. Joe Flacco struggled, finishing 23-of-37 for 206 yards while Alex Collins led on the ground, carrying 9 times for 35 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens also went just 4-12 on third downs and 1-4 in the red zone.
These two have met up 45 times dating back to 1996 and the Bengals lead the series 23-22-0. Cincinnati has also had the upper hand as of late, winning 8 of the last ten matchups going back to 2013.
For Cincinnati, listed as questionable for Sunday’s game are CB Darqueze Denard (shoulder), TE Tyler Kroft (foot), LB Nick Vigil (knee), G Alex Redmond (hamstring), WR Josh Malone (hamstring).
For Baltimore, listed as questionable for Sunday are QB Joe Flacco (hip), G James Hurst (back), CB Tavon Young (ankle), T Ronnie Stanley (leg), LB Tim Williams (ankle), WR Jordan Lasley (hamstring).
When the Bengals Have the Ball
Change is certain to be in the air in Cinci after last week’s blowout loss to the Saints. The Bengals have fired defensive coordinator Teryl Austin but you can also expect a shakeup on the offensive side. Exactly what that will mean for the offense is unclear, but Andy Dalton was out of sorts against the Saints without top target A.J. Green, who’s out indefinitely with a foot injury. He tried turning to speedster John Ross in Green’s absence but that was only good for 2 catches for 39 yards last time out. Against Baltimore, who still own the NFL’s 2nd-ranked total defense, 3rd-ranked pass defense and 2nd-ranked scoring defense, the Bengals’s suspect offense (21st-ranked passing offense and 25th-ranked rushing offense) means Dalton could be in for a long day.
When the Ravens Have the Ball
Joe Flacco is questionable for Sunday with a hip injury he sustained against Pittsburgh and that might not be such a bad thing. That could mean that either Lamar Jackson or Robert Griffin III would get the start, which just might provide the spark that this Raven’s offense needs to put an end to its current three-game skid. Only Jackson has seen any action out of the two, completing 7-of-12 for 87 yards and 1 touchdown in light mop-up duty but he’s your likely starter in the event that Flacco can’t go. That would provide a whole new look on offense, one that would add some much-needed flair and unpredictability to a unit that’s been stuck in the mud for close to a month now.
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· Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
· The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati’s last 10 games
· Cincinnati is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
· The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games on the road
· Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
· Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
· Cincinnati is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
· Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
· Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
· The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore’s last 7 games
· Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
· Baltimore is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games at home
· The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games at home
· Baltimore is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
· Baltimore is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
· Baltimore is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
· Baltimore is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Temperatures of 48 degrees are expected under mostly cloudy skies with 56% humidity and 5 mph NNW winds.
Rick Wise’s NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3