NFL Football Picks

Deshaun Watson returns from Achilles surgery to face a top-3 defense. Joe Jensen backs the Jaguars to cover comfortably at home, with the QB matchup and Cleveland’s defensive losses tilting the value toward Jacksonville.

Daniel Jones returns from Achilles surgery to face Lamar Jackson in Week 1. Joe Jensen takes Baltimore to cover in Indianapolis, backed by the QB health asymmetry and Trey Hendrickson’s arrival in Baltimore.

Joe Burrow is back and healthy for the first time in a full offseason. Joe Jensen takes Cincinnati to cover at Paycor Stadium, backed by the Bengals’ offseason defensive overhaul and Tampa Bay’s WR concerns without Mike Evans.

Detroit lays 7 in Dan Campbell’s bounce-back opener, but a new offensive coordinator and a defense on the hot seat give New Orleans real value getting the points. Joe Jensen breaks down the play.

The first NFL regular season game in Australia is Thursday night at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Joe Jensen takes San Francisco getting the points, with the 49ers’ week-long acclimation trip and Matthew Stafford’s back injury tilting the value toward the visitors.

Seven months after Super Bowl LX, these two teams meet again in Seattle to open the 2026 season. Joe Jensen makes the case for the Patriots covering the small spread as road underdogs.

Joe Jensen breaks down Saturday’s Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans preseason Week 3 finale with a spread play on the Bears on the road, backed by Tennessee’s terrible home record.

Joe Jensen breaks down Saturday’s Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts preseason Week 3 finale with a spread play on the Colts at home, backed by their first-quarter starter plan versus Detroit sitting everyone.

Joe Jensen breaks down Friday’s New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys preseason Week 3 finale with a spread play on the Cowboys at home, backed by their dominant 2-0 preseason and Saints’ offensive struggles.

RBD takes the Houston Texans in Friday’s preseason Week 3 matchup against Carolina, backed by DeMeco Ryans’ 70% preseason winning record and redemption motivation.